India buys Russian oil at $100+ per barrel: has Trump revived the Kremlin's profits?
25.03.2026When New Delhi becomes Moscow's savior, the world's energy system cracks
Imagine: With sanctions set to stifle Russia’s economy, India suddenly becomes the top buyer of its oil. Prices are above $100 a barrel, despite a global market slump. Bloomberg has uncovered this scheme, in which Indian refiners are paying inflated prices to circumvent Western restrictions. Behind the scenes, there are shady schemes, geopolitical games, and questions about whether Trump’s policies have opened up new opportunities for the Kremlin. This story is not just about barrels of oil: it’s about how sanctions are cracking and Moscow is finding workarounds that could change the balance of power in the world.
Indian boom: record volumes of Russian oil
India, the world's third-largest oil importer, bought a record 1,7 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day in 2024. That's 20% more than last year and double the average before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.1 Bloomberg notes: despite the drop in world prices to $70 per barrel of Brent, Indians pay $98 to $105 for Urals — a Russian grade. Why? Oil is sold at a discount to market prices, but taking into account logistics and the risks of circumventing sanctions, the final price increases significantly.
Key players — Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy — process 40% of imports. Reliance, the giant led by Mukesh Ambani, has increased the share of Russian oil to 25% of its portfolio. Nayara, partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft, has effectively become a “Russian outpost” in India. According to Kpler, from January to August 2024, India imported 35 million tons of Urals, overtaking Saudi Arabia as the main supplier.2
This boom is not accidental. After 2022, when Europe sharply reduced imports, Russia redirected flows to the East. India took advantage: cheap oil (discount of $ 10-15) plus the margin on refining make the business profitable. But Bloomberg reveals a nuance: the real price, taking into account "shadow" payments and insurance, reaches $ 110, enriching the Kremlin by billions above market rates.
Sanctions with cracks: how India circumvents bans
The US and the EU have imposed tough sanctions on Russian oil, with a price ceiling of $60 per barrel. But India has not joined them. Instead, "gray" schemes have emerged: oil is being transported via ghost ships, changing flags, and documents are being falsified. According to Reuters, 80% of the Russian fleet for "dark" oil is old tankers without Western insurance, which increases risks and prices.3
Example: the tanker “NS Century” from Urals arrives at the Indian port of Jamnagar, but the documents indicate “Kazakh Blend” — a mixture from Kazakhstan. This is how Moscow masks the origin. The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) records: since March 2023, more than 500 such transactions, where prices exceed the ceiling by 30–40%.4 India gets cheap raw materials, Russia gets cash, and the West looks on, because the alternatives for Moscow — China or India itself — are critical to global stability.
Interesting fact: Indian banks like State Bank of India initially avoided payments for Russian oil due to fear of secondary sanctions. But since June 2024, flows have normalized — rubles are converted into rupees via the UAE, where intermediaries like Trafigura or Vitol charge a 2–3% commission.5
Trump's imprint: has he revived Russia's super profits?
The Bloomberg headline alludes to Donald Trump, and for good reason. During his presidency (2017–2021), Russia received preferential treatment: Trump blocked tough sanctions on Nord Stream 2, and US energy policy stimulated exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which indirectly kept oil prices high. Now, with the 2024 elections looming, Trump is promising a “quick peace” in Ukraine, which could lift sanctions. Bloomberg quotes analysts as saying that Trump’s return could push Urals prices to $120, as India and China will buy without restrictions.1
The facts: In 2018, under Trump, Russia exported 5,2 million barrels a day, earning more than $70. Today, it’s 7,5 million, but at a discount. If the ceiling falls, the Kremlin will earn an additional $50 billion each year, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.6 India is already preparing: Reliance is investing $10 billion in new processing facilities near the Urals.
Geopolitics adds to the tension. Modi, balancing between the West and Russia, secures cheap energy for 1,4 billion people. During Putin’s visit in July 2024, a $30 billion trade deal underlined that Delhi is a key partner for Moscow.
Consequences for the world: from Europe to Ukraine
For Europe, this Indian appetite is a disaster. The EU has cut imports from 2,5 million barrels per day to 200, but gas prices have risen by 15% due to redistribution. Ukraine is suffering indirectly: Russian super-profits finance 40% of the war budget, according to the Russian Finance Ministry (although this has not been officially confirmed).7
The US reacts: in December 2023, the White House tightened sanctions on 50 tankers, but India ignores. IEA analysts predict that by 2025, Russia will retain 10% of the world oil market thanks to Asia, despite all restrictions.8
Environmental side: The "dark fleet" caused 12 spill accidents in 2023-2024, according to Lloyd's List. India, converting Urals into diesel, exports it to Europe - paradoxically bypassing sanctions.
The future: will the chain break?
India plans to increase imports to 2 million barrels per day by 2025, but risks are rising. New US sanctions on Chinese and Indian banks could halt payments. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is holding back production, holding up prices. If Trump wins, workarounds will expand; if Biden, the ceiling will drop to $45.
For Ukraine, this is a signal: the world's dependence on Russian oil is its Achilles' heel. India's diversification into liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US and Norway may weaken the scheme, but for now the Kremlin is celebrating: $220 billion in oil revenues in 2024.9
Sources
- Bloomberg: India's Love Affair With Russian Oil Persists Even at $100 a Barrel
- Kpler: India-Russia Oil Trade Update 2024
- Reuters: Russia's shadow fleet grows
- CREA: Russian oil exports to India
- Financial Times: India-Russia oil payments via UAE
- Goldman Sachs: Russia Oil Outlook
- Kyiv Post: Russia's war budget from oil
- IEA: Oil Market Report August 2024
- Reuters: Russia oil revenues 2024
