Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz in response to possible US strikes on TPP
23.03.2026Tensions are rising in the Strait of Hormuz, where one careless move could halt global oil supplies. Iranian officials have said that if the US attacks their power plants, Tehran will completely block this strategic sea route, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes.
This statement was made by senior officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It comes against the backdrop of an escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump's threats of "devastating strikes" on Tehran's key infrastructure are perceived as crossing a red line. The Strait of Hormuz is the artery of the world's energy: a narrow channel, only 33 km wide at its narrowest point, through which 21 million barrels of oil pass by tankers every day. The blockade will cause not only a sharp increase in the price of "black gold", but also a global economic shock.1
The Iranian threat: words or real preparations?
The statement was made by IRGC commander Hossein Salami in an interview with state television: “If America strikes our power plants, we will close the Strait of Hormuz to the whole world.” These words are backed up by a show of force: Iranian forces are conducting large-scale exercises in the strait. Fateh-110 missiles and speedboats are practicing blockade tactics. According to satellite imagery from Planet Labs, Iran has increased its presence in the strait by 40% in recent weeks, deploying additional minelayers and underwater drones.2
History knows precedents. In the 1980s, during the “tank war,” Iran blocked the strait for Iraqi tankers, which led to a 300% increase in oil prices. Today, Tehran has a powerful arsenal: more than 2000 anti-submarine mines, a swarm of Bavanda speedboats, and ballistic missiles with a range of up to 300 km. Open source intelligence (OSINT) analysis in the IRGC’s Telegram channels shows fresh photos of training exercises where boats simulate attacks on supertankers. This is not a bluff: Iran has already demonstrated its readiness by seizing the British tanker Stena Impero in 2019.3
Economically, Iran is ready for such a move: the country has accumulated oil reserves of 100 million barrels, and China, its main buyer, has alternative routes through the Caspian. For the West, this is a disaster: Europe receives 20% of its oil from there, the United States - critical supplies for oil refineries (refineries).
Trump's threats: rhetoric or action plan?
Donald Trump promises to “destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure.” On X (formerly Twitter), he wrote: “Iran will pay a high price if it does not stop its aggression.” The focus on power plants is a clever move: the Bushehr and Ahvaz TPPs generate 30% of Iran’s energy. Their destruction would paralyze the economy without directly hitting oil. According to the Pentagon, the US has deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln destroyer to the Persian Gulf with Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of hitting targets at a distance of 2500 km.4
Open source intelligence (OSINT) analysis reveals details: Maxar satellite imagery shows B-52s deployed to Diego Garcia, while Flightradar24 captures RQ-4 Global Hawks flying over the strait. Trump’s strategy is reminiscent of the “maximum pressure” of 2018, when sanctions cut Iranian exports by 90%. Now a military component is added: NATO sources report plans for “coordinated strikes” involving Israel, whose F-35s are already patrolling the region.
Why the TPP? Because it is an Achilles' heel: Iran depends on imported gas for electricity, and a blackout in Tehran would cause chaos and force the regime to negotiate. But the risk is huge - Iran will respond asymmetrically, attacking US bases in Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
Geopolitical consequences: global ripple effect
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not a local crisis. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Brent prices will jump to $150 a barrel, US inflation will rise by 2-3%, and Europe will face fuel shortages. China, which imports 10 million barrels a day from there, will accelerate the Silk Road to bypass supplies from Russia and Venezuela.5
Neighbors in panic: Saudi Arabia activated the East-West pipeline by 5 million barrels per day, the UAE - Habshan-Fujairah. Israel prepares for preemptive strikes: Prime Minister Netanyahu declared "zero tolerance" for the Iranian nuclear program, linked to the Strait through financing.
Open source monitoring (OSINT) shows: Houthis in Yemen, allies of Iran, have already attacked 12 Saudi tankers with Shahed-136 drones. If the strait is closed, they will expand the zone to the Red Sea, where 12% of world trade passes. Global supply chains: automakers Toyota and Volkswagen have already warned of production shutdowns due to shortages.
Historical context: lessons from the past
The Strait of Hormuz is a chronic source of crises. In 2019, Iran attacked the Saudi Abqaiq-Khurais oil facilities, cutting exports by 5,7 million barrels — the biggest blow in 25 years. Trump responded with sanctions but avoided war. Today, the stakes are higher: Iran has enriched uranium to 60%, one step closer to a bomb, and the Trump administration (if it wins) promises “the end of the regime.”6
Declassified Soviet archives recall 1988, when Reagan destroyed half of the Iranian fleet for mining the strait. Iran learned its lessons: the fleet is now a swarm of drones and boats, where one tanker is worth an entire squadron.
Economic shock for the world: figures and forecasts
Goldman Sachs models: blockade for a week — +10 dollars per barrel, for a month — recession. The US will lose 50 billion dollars, Europe — 100 billion euros. Ukraine, which imports 80% of oil from the region, will experience a jump in fuel prices to 70 UAH/liter, which will push up inflation.7
Alternatives are limited: the 1 million barrel Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is a drop in the ocean. LNG terminals in Europe are overloaded due to the war in Ukraine.
Possible scenarios: from diplomacy to war
Optimistic: China and Oman as mediators, Trump is pressuring with sanctions. Pessimistic: attacks on TPPs, blockade, Houthi response - and the Persian Gulf is in flames. Open source analysis (OSINT) records: Iran has transferred a division to Bandar Abbas, the US - an aircraft carrier.
The key for the world is de-escalation. But with Trump in the White House and Salameh in Tehran, the risk of war is as real as ever.
Sources
- Reuters: Iran threatens Strait of Hormuz closure
- Times of Israel: IRGC warnings
- Al Jazeera: Iranian military drills
- CNN: Trump threats analysis
- IEA: Oil market impact
- BBC: Historical precedents
- Bloomberg: Economic forecasts
