Oil falls 13%, Dow Jones soars 1000 points: Iran opens Strait of Hormuz for truce
18.04.2026Global markets celebrate de-escalation in the Middle East: the unblocking of the world's main energy artery has returned oil prices to March lows and sparked a rally on Wall Street.
The global economy received an unexpected breath of fresh air today. After weeks of tense anticipation and the threat of an energy collapse, Iran officially announced the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping for the duration of a 10-day ceasefire . 1 The market reaction was lightning-fast: Brent crude fell 13% to $86,30 a barrel, while the US Dow Jones industrial average posted a record gain of more than 1000 points in a single trading session . 1 2 This diplomatic breakthrough, confirmed by President Donald Trump, was the most powerful signal of stabilization in the entire conflict.
Diplomacy in action: how 10 days changed the world's oil map
The statement of Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi on the X network triggered a massive sell-off in oil futures. “In accordance with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open,” the head of Iranian diplomacy said 1 . This decision removed the threat of blocking 21 million barrels of oil per day, which had loomed over the world since the outbreak of hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran in February 2026 1 3.
For world leaders and central banks, this truce is a chance to curb inflationary pressures. WTI oil also showed a sharp drop of 13%, stopping at $79,20 per barrel. Traders, who yesterday were pricing in a “war premium”, are today massively liquidating long positions, returning quotes to the levels of the beginning of spring 1 4.
Wall Street at its peak: record recovery of stock indices
The US stock market reacted to the news with unprecedented enthusiasm. The S&P 500 index rose 1,3%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq added 1,6%, extending its longest winning streak since 1992 — 12 consecutive days of growth . 1 Analysts note that the market not only recovered losses, but also reached new all-time highs amid optimism about the end of the war . 1 5
However, experienced strategists, such as Doug Beat of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, warn against excessive euphoria. “Markets care about the free flow of oil in the short term, but it all depends on how the negotiations proceed,” the expert emphasizes. 1 Indeed, the ceasefire is designed for only 10 days, and the future fate of the region remains the subject of complex negotiations between Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran.
Ukrainian interest: falling resource prices and geopolitical pause
For Ukraine, the 13% drop in world oil prices is a strategic bonus. Given its complete dependence on imported fuel, such a decline in quotations on the London and Rotterdam exchanges should lead to cheaper diesel and gasoline at Ukrainian gas stations within the next two weeks . 6 This is critically important for logistics chains and the sowing campaign.
On the other hand, OSINT data shows that while the “oil truce” continues, the US military presence in the region is not being reduced. Donald Trump has made it clear that the naval blockade of Iran will remain in place “until our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.” 1 This suggests that economic easing is only part of a larger deal that may include restrictions on Iranian proxy forces and its nuclear program.
The Trump Factor: Truth Social as a Platform for Oil Policy
The US president traditionally uses his own media resources to manage market expectations. His posts about the “open and ready for full passage” of the strait have become the main source of information for investors 1 . Trump emphasizes the speed of the process: “This process should move very quickly, because most of the points have already been agreed upon” 1 . Such confidence from the White House adds confidence to investors, but at the same time leaves open the question of the price that will have to be paid for lasting peace.
Technical analysis: will oil hold below $90?
Despite the collapse, Brent and WTI prices are still above their pre-war levels ($73 and $67, respectively) 1 . Technical analysts point to strong support levels around $80-82 per barrel Brent 4 7 . If the 10-day truce does not develop into a permanent agreement, the market could see a similarly rapid “bounce” upwards as soon as the first signs of a breakdown in the agreements appear.
The world has gotten a reprieve, but the Strait of Hormuz remains a “noose” that Tehran could tighten at any moment. For now, markets are choosing to believe in diplomacy, but oil at $86 is only a temporary anomaly in an unfinished conflict.
Sources
- CNN Business: Oil plunges 13%, Dow soars 1,000 points after Iran says Strait of Hormuz is 'completely open' during ceasefire, April 2026
- Wall Street Journal: Markets react to US-Iran 10-day ceasefire agreement
- Bloomberg: Crude Oil Slump as Iranian Shipping Risks Fade
- Financial Times: Global energy markets and the Middle East de-escalation
- CNBC: Nasdaq 12-day winning streak amid Middle East peace hopes
- Ukrainian energy: Consequences of the global fall in oil prices for the Ukrainian fuel market
- Reuters: Analysts warn of oil price volatility despite temporary ceasefire
