Germany is preparing for war with Russia: an attack on NATO in 2028–2029?

Shadow over Europe: when will the silence turn to thunder?

Imagine a quiet evening in Berlin, where the streets, yesterday filled with laughing tourists, suddenly fill with the echoes of soldiers' footsteps. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is not just warning - he paints a picture where the year 2028 becomes the border between peace and war. Russia is rebuilding its forces, NATO is rushing to arm itself, and Europe, seemingly carefree, suddenly finds itself on the verge of a test.¹²⁵ These words, spoken in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, ring like a bell calling for vigilance. Will the summer of 2025 really be the last peaceful one? We delve into the details that are changing the perception of the continent's security.

Pistorius' words: from 2029 to 2028

Boris Pistorius, the German Defense Minister, clearly outlined the threat horizon in November 2025. “We always said that this could happen in 2029. But now there are analysts who believe that an attack is possible as early as 2028, and some military historians are even declaring last summer the last peaceful one,” he said.²⁵⁹ This evolution of forecasts is not accidental. It is based on intelligence assessments: Russia, despite the war in Ukraine, is rebuilding its arsenals faster than expected. According to German intelligence, Moscow could reach the critical mass to strike NATO's eastern flank — the Baltic states or Poland — in two to three years.¹

Pistorius emphasizes: NATO should not appear weak. The alliance has "significant deterrence potential - conventional and nuclear".² Germany, as a key player, is already taking action. Comprehensive medical examinations for potential conscripts will begin in mid-2027. Berlin is forming a reserve of former soldiers to bring the Bundeswehr to 260.² Defense spending will increase from 100 billion euros in 2025 to 160 billion in 2029.³

These steps are not panic, but strategy. Pistorius emphasizes the Bundeswehr's readiness to confront Russian aggression in the event of an attack on an ally.² In the summer of 2025, he already declared that peace was only possible from a position of strength. At the same time, Inspector General Carsten Breuer warned of a “clear threat from Russia,” which was arming itself beyond what was needed in Ukraine.¹

Germany's secret plan: 800 soldiers to the east

We delve even deeper into the preparations. According to The Wall Street Journal, a group of German officers has developed a confidential scenario for the event of war with Russia.² The plan, created two and a half years ago amid the war in Ukraine, involves moving 800 NATO troops — from Germany, the United States and other countries — to the alliance's eastern border. It details ports, rivers, highways and railways for logistics, supply schemes and convoy protection.²

This is not about offensive, but about deterrence. The authors of the plan are blurring the line between civilian and military: the infrastructure, the army, and the legislation are being adapted to the logic of Cold War 2.0.²³ Lieutenant General Andre Bodemann, one of the developers, emphasizes: the goal is to show the enemy that the attack will fail. The plan takes into account Germany's worn-out infrastructure and lack of personnel. Berlin positions itself as a NATO logistics hub.²

Additional details from other sources: Danish intelligence in February 2025 predicted a direct threat to NATO five years after the end or freezing of the war in Ukraine.⁷ NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is tough: Europeans should review their defense budgets, otherwise "learn Russian or run to New Zealand."² In Germany, CDU leader Friedrich Merz describes the reality as “neither war nor peace” — with sabotage, cyberattacks, and attacks on data centers.¹

Moscow's reaction and skeptics in Europe

The Kremlin reacted immediately. Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov called Pistorius' predictions speculation, and Vladimir Putin repeatedly denied plans to attack NATO.² However, the facts say otherwise: Russia is increasing weapons production, despite losses in Ukraine. Berlin views hybrid provocations as preparation for war.⁴⁸

Not everyone in Europe agrees. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called the idea of ​​a Russian offensive "ridiculous": NATO is stronger, Russia is exhausted.² The disagreement illustrates the cracks in the alliance. Hungary is blocking parts of aid to Ukraine, insisting on negotiations. Orbán’s stance contrasts with Berlin’s toughness, where Pistorius sees Russian aggression as a prelude to something bigger.

Military historians cited by Pistorius paint a bleak picture: Russia has learned the lessons of 2022, is modernizing its navy, aviation, and air defenses, and estimates suggest that by 2029, Moscow could have the upper hand on the eastern flank.⁵

Global context: from Ukraine to the Baltics

It all started with Ukraine. The Russian invasion of 2022 forced Europe to reconsider its doctrines. Denmark, Poland, the Baltic states are all strengthening their defenses. NATO is deploying battalions to the east, the US is transferring equipment. Germany, traditionally cautious, is now the leader: 100 billion euros in a special fund for the army is a record.³

This is a signal for Ukraine. Berlin supplies Leopard tanks, Patriot air defense systems, and promises Taurus. Pistorius sees the war with Russia as a continuation of the Ukrainian conflict: Moscow's victory in Ukraine will open the way to the Baltics.² Local sources, like Ukrainian analysts, emphasize: Russian sabotage in Europe — from arson to cyberattacks — is already testing NATO's response.⁴

The economy plays a role. Russia, despite sanctions, has reoriented itself to Asia, increasing its GDP at the expense of the military-industrial complex. Europe, on the other hand, is struggling with inflation, but defense budgets are growing: NATO demands 2% of GDP, Germany is approaching 3%.³

Preparing society: from reserve to mobilization

Germany returns to conscription. From 2027 — medical examinations, reserve of veterans. Bundeswehr trains reservists, modernizes equipment. Pistorius: "We are gaining speed — arms contracts have doubled."¹⁵ Society is preparing: civil defense campaigns, training in case of cyberattacks.

European generals are warning of thousands of casualties — this is realism, not panic.⁷ Europe learns from Ukraine: drones, hybrid warfare, logistics. The plan for 800 thousand is a test of infrastructure survival.²

Will the inevitable happen? Scenarios and lessons

Optimists believe in deterrence: NATO's nuclear shield is invincible. Pessimists count the deadlines - 2028 is the point of no return. For Ukraine, this is a call: to hold the front to delay the threat. Europe is changing - from pacifists to warriors.²

Historical parallels: The Cold War ended without a shot being fired, but the stakes are higher now. Pistorius is not predicting war—he is calling for action. Will Europe listen?

Sources

1. RBC.ua: "Less than three years left." Germany accelerates arms purchases due to threat from Russia
2. Argumentua.com: WSJ told how Germany is preparing for war
3. Bastion.tv: Germany is preparing for war with Russia
4. TSN.ua: Germany's secret plan to prepare for Russian attacks: details from ISW
5. Unian.ua: Russia could attack a NATO country before 2029, – Pistorius
6. NV.ua: Germany is preparing a plan in case of war with Russia — ISW analyzes the timing
7. Texty.org.ua: European generals urge people to prepare for war
8. Espreso.tv: Germany views Russian hybrid provocations as preparation for war
9. 24tv.ua: Germany warned of imminent threat of Russian attack on the Alliance