Orbán is preparing for the last fight. NATO - to large-scale exercises

Exclusive. Viktor Orban is resisting the general norms of pan-European discipline with all his might. One day, and quite unexpectedly, this opposition will play a joke on him, and the joke will not be a good one.

Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban

The election campaign has already started in Hungary. Viktor Orbán pulled off a certain trick - the municipal and European Parliament elections in 2024 were combined and a complex structure was created to gather votes for the ruling Fidesz party. At the same time, this may be her last success.

Orbán's government conducts anti-American rhetoric, 18 percent of Hungarians call the US an enemy of their country

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in cooperation with the sociological companies Alpha, Analitiqs, Datapraxis, Szondaphone and YouGov ECFR conducted representative survey in 11 member states of the European Union - Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, Poland, Hungary, Germany, Italy, Spain. and Sweden and published its results, which were presented by the publication for the first time in Hungary Nepszava.

According to this study, Europeans' perception of the United States has improved significantly over the past two years, and EU citizens prefer to remain neutral in a possible armed conflict between the US and China.

Despite improving transatlantic relations, Europeans would prefer to stay out of a possible confrontation between the United States and China.

The study is based on a comprehensive representative survey conducted in 11 EU member states that examined relations with major powers.

Respondents were given the opportunity to classify the United States, China, and Russia into one of four categories: as an ally with the same values ​​and interests, as an important partner for strategic cooperation, as a rival or adversary with whom they are in conflict.

From the obtained data, it can be clearly understood that thanks to the efforts of US President Joe Biden and as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, transatlantic relations, which deteriorated under Donald Trump, have somewhat recovered. According to the survey, 32 percent of Hungarians called Europe an ally, and another 43 percent called the United States an important partner. Among the countries surveyed, 55% of Danes and 50% of Poles consider America an ally of the continent, and another 32% and 32%, respectively, a partner. In Bulgaria, slightly more than half of the population (53 percent) consider Washington an ally or partner of Europe.

Having restored transatlantic trust here or there, Europeans want the continent to go its own way.

Despite Biden's friendlier foreign policy, there are still supporters of the concept of strategic autonomy adopted by EU leaders in the Trump era. 74 percent of respondents say that the continent should build up its own defense capabilities. An ECFR poll in November 2020 found that 66 percent of EU citizens felt the same way. In the study, the authors Yana Pulierin і Pavel Zerka, leading ECFR analysts, appointed, that three years ago public opinion was still influenced by Trump, who had doubts about NATO's role and threatened to withdraw.

As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the share of those who called Russia a competitor (9 percent) or an adversary (59 percent) increased from more than one-third (36 percent) to about two-thirds (64 percent) in the 11 countries surveyed.

Different nations imagine post-conflict relations quite differently. Most Europeans would be open to resuming bilateral relations with Moscow in one form or another after a peace agreement. In the EU member states surveyed, 21 percent would consider full cooperation desirable, 48 percent — certain limited relations, which, for example, exclude trade in certain sectors. Bulgaria is the most receptive: 51 percent would place no limits on future cooperation with Russia, another 33 percent would like to limit relations after the war, in Hungary 32 percent favor full cooperation, and 54 percent would limit bilateral relations to certain limits. Poland is the most reserved: 39 percent think Warsaw should not maintain any relations with Moscow after the war, while half of the Polish population is ready for limited (42 percent) or full cooperation (8 percent).

At the same time, Europeans do not perceive danger, because in a military sense they rely on an overseas ally. Forty-seven percent of those polled said current security cooperation between Europe and the United States was beneficial, another 47 percent said it was as beneficial as it was risky, and only 24 percent called it risky. A majority (15 percent) believe that Trump's likely election next year will weaken the alliance, but not too many (56 percent) think this is likely. At most, 28 percent expect Ukraine to win the war, and a military confrontation between China and the United States (33 percent).

Despite the fact that relations with America have become closer again, Europeans would prefer to stay as far as possible from the great power polemics. If a Sino-American armed conflict broke out over Taiwan, which is de jure a proper province of the Beijing regime but is de facto independent, then the majority in all the EU member states considered would choose neutrality. On average, 62 percent would prefer to stay out of such a potential conflict, 23 percent would side with America, and 5 percent would side with China. 41 percent of EU member states polled would support sanctions against the Asian country, and 33 percent would consider protecting the Western economy more important than punishing China.

There is no unity among EU member states on this issue. According to the ECFR survey, absolute majorities in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands support sanctions, but in Austria, Hungary, Italy and Bulgaria, they were clearly opposed to punitive measures.

A significant share of Hungarians, 18 percent, called the United States an enemy of their country. This is likely a result of the anti-American rhetoric that has dominated government communications and Fidesz media in recent months. Prime Minister Viktor Orban directly called the Biden administration an enemy of Hungary in early March. Earlier, the American ambassador to Hungary, David Pressman, called such rhetoric alarming and unprecedented from an ally country.

At the same time, the study shows that the majority of Hungarians favor the NATO ally: 20 percent called the US an ally of Hungary, and another 50 percent called it a partner. At the same time, the majority of Hungarians (54 percent) believe that the possible return of Trump will weaken the transatlantic alliance.

Hungary perceives the eastern states also positively. China is considered an ally of Hungary by 12 percent, a partner by 60 percent, and even Russia, which is waging a bloody war with its neighbor Ukraine, was classified as positive by 14 percent and 45 percent, respectively. Although the majority of Hungarians see the Russians as a friend of the country, paradoxically, they are a threat to Europe: 8% consider Moscow a rival of Europe, and 46% - an enemy of the continent.

Europeans are generally aware of the risks of Chinese investments. In the EU countries surveyed, 65 percent think it is unacceptable for Chinese companies to own bridges, ports or other European infrastructure, and only 18 percent would approve. 59 percent of EU citizens would not want to give newspapers to Chinese investors and 52 percent - technology companies. However, public opinion is more divided when it comes to buying football teams (42:37%) or making infrastructure investments (43:39%) in the second case China's involvement is rejected. Overall, EU-China economic relations are considered balanced in the EU member states surveyed, with 28 percent saying the trade relationship is rather beneficial, another 35 percent saying it is both beneficial and risky, and only 22 percent saying it is rather risky.

In general, most Europeans do not perceive China as a challenge, they do not believe in the confrontation between democracies and autocracies. The authors concluded that European opinion about China has changed little since the 2021 poll, even though Chinese President Xi Jinping announced an "unrestricted partnership" with Russia just before the war in Ukraine, and Beijing remains reluctant to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "In almost all the surveyed countries, the prevailing opinion is that China is a necessary partner for Europe and the country," ECFR analysts write.

In 11 EU countries, 43 percent consider China to be one of Europe's partners, in three countries this opinion is shared by an absolute majority: 58 percent in Bulgaria, 54 percent in Hungary and 51 percent in Spain. In general, few people called this Asian country an ally of the old continent - only 8 percent of Hungarians and Bulgarians each. The share of those who are critical of Beijing is also insignificant: in the studied countries, 24% believe that Europe called China a rival, and another 11% - an enemy. In Germany and Sweden, only half of the population has a negative attitude towards China, and this opinion is also held by a relative majority in France and Denmark.

Based on these data, the authors conclude that European leaders should inform the public more about foreign policy issues and prepare them for possible future scenarios. They should hold public debates, for example, about the dangers of Chinese economic influence or about the likely consequences of a great power confrontation between the US and China.

OCCASUS — NATO's largest air exercises with the participation of Hungary — begins

Air Defender '23 is not only the largest air force deployment exercise in NATO history, which will last from June 12 to 23. Coordination of air operations between allied air forces for optimal joint deterrence and counterattack will be practiced on them.

In view of the likely escalation of the war against Russia to the West, the Alliance worked on various plausible scenarios based on real data, according to which Germany could be attacked directly through the Baltic states and Poland by an eastern military aggressor codenamed OCCASUS (Sunset). The main means of countering aggression is aviation, which is joined by cyber and space units, as well as anti-terrorist means.

Such scenarios were designed to repel major attacks from the Arctic or from the south or southeast. Several military exercises (Trident Jupiter, Trident Juncture) have already been organized to test such situations.

The general goal of the plans and exercises is to achieve a 360°, i.e. full, level of defense of the countries covered by NATO. The task is not to analyze past, but likely future conflicts and develop possible responses.

Air Defender exercises were initiated by Germany in 2018 and will be held regularly in the future.

Within 10 days, 25 NATO countries will work possibilities of joint response of their Air Force in a crisis situation. The training will continue under the leadership of Germany, and Germany will also provide logistics centers and stations.

NATO training

At the event, Finland will make its debut as a full member of NATO, and two non-Alliance countries will join: Sweden, which is awaiting membership, and Japan. Gripens of the Hungarian Defense Forces are stationed in the northern province of Schleswig-Holstein. In addition to the Hungarians, the air force of Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, Finland and mixed NATO squadrons are participating in the combat group heading to the Baltic Sea.

As you know, in the event of an attack on one of the NATO countries, the intervention of the Alliance is mandatory. The scenario is based on the provision of assistance under Article 5 of NATO, in view of which all member states of the alliance are obliged to immediately come to the rescue, in particular by military means. About 10 people, 250 aircraft of 23 types are taking part in the exercises. 100 planes came from 42 US states. Most of them are delegated by the US Air National Guard. The international fleet will also include F-16 and F-35 fighter-bombers.

The units sent by the various states are grouped into three groups: North, South and East. Air Defender's flight altitude is from 2500 to 15000 meters. Refueling in the air takes place at altitudes from 3000 to 10 meters. Ground flights of fighter and transport aircraft are planned at the eastern Fight 000 range, which is a test of the deployment and protection of airborne units.

Viktor Orban noticed the escalation in the Ukrainian-Russian war and convened the Defense Council at dawn

At dawn on June 8, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán convened the Defense Council due to the escalation of hostilities in the Ukrainian-Russian war, Bertalan Khavasi, the head of the Prime Minister's press service, reported (Photo Telex).

Bertalan Havasi, head of the press service of the Prime Minister

At the meeting in the Carmelite monastery, Viktor Orban emphasized that although the ceasefire and peace will be most important, the Ukrainian-Russian war has been intensifying since last evening. "For us, the security of Hungary is still our top priority," the prime minister said.

The meeting was attended by Minister of Defense Christophe Schalay-Bobrovnytskyi, Minister of the Interior Sandor Pinter, Antal Rogan, Chief of Staff of the Prime Minister, Chief of Staff Gabor Bjorondi, Brigadier General Norbert Taji, State Secretary Jozef Kovacs, Chief National Security Adviser and Janos Nagy.

Orbán responded hysterically to the EU migration pact

Brussels is abusing its power and wants to settle migrants in Hungary by force - this is how Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reacted to the fact that, despite the opposition of Hungary and Poland, the interior ministers of the EU countries reached an agreement on the issue of migration.

After long discussions, the EU member states agreed on the transformation of the asylum system - at least on two key documents of the entire migrant package. It is about solidarity between member states, strengthening border protection and return procedures.

Under the new rules, member states must show solidarity with EU countries where the majority of immigrants arrive: either they must accept asylum seekers or pay compensation of 20 euros for each person not accepted.

Representatives of the EU member states agreed on such a norm at the meeting of the Council of Internal Affairs and Justice, which means that a qualified majority is enough to approve the changes. So, despite the fact that Hungary and Poland voted against, and Malta, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Latvia and the Czech Republic abstained, there were enough supporters of the proposal to pass.

Meeting of the Defense Council of Hungary

Viktor Orbán said that Brussels is abusing its power. The Prime Minister of Hungary published in Facebook a post in which it is said that they want to settle migrants by force in Hungary and make Hungary a country of immigration by force. According to him, this is unacceptable.

In the public discourse, Brussels is often referred to as a synonym for the EU institutions, and primarily the European Commission, but the government regularly throws in the name of the city even in cases where it is actually about the decisions and responsibilities of the member states. This is what happened this time as well: the ministers of internal affairs (and secretaries of state) of 27 member states voted for the amendment to the EU migration policy, and not some supranational institution of the EU.

State Secretary Bence Retvari, who represented Hungary at the meeting, and his Polish counterpart argued that the issue should be brought to the attention of heads of state and government (ie the European Council). There, the approval of the proposal would require the consent of the leaders of all member states, so the governments of Hungary and Poland would be able to veto the transformation of the migration system.

State Secretary Bence Retwari

Hungary is looking for friends

China and Russia could benefit from a reliable ally or at least accomplice within the EU — as long as Hungary is an EU member and has veto power. "Since relations between the European Union and Russia have been broken, we would consider it extremely harmful if the same thing happened to European-Chinese relations," said Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijarto. It should be recalled that he refused to vote on behalf of the government for the eleventh package of sanctions against Russia. According to him, punitive measures "completely contradict common sense." The government will support them only if OTP Bank is removed from the list of supporters of the war in Ukraine.

But what relation do the sanctions against the Kremlin have to China or the Hungarian bank?

In fact, it has nothing to do with OTP, and even more so, with the Hungarian parent company, which, according to its own statements, operates in Russia only out of necessity and is therefore looking for a buyer for its rather small branches in Russia, which did not even ask for help from the Hungarian government

However the eleventh package of the European Commission will also hit countries that help Moscow circumvent previous sanctions and supply it with banned microchips or ammunition.

This is where China appears, against which the Hungarian government strongly opposes punishment. Berlin also has reservations about taking action against China. However, he protested the loudest Peter Sijarto. Before a visit to Beijing in mid-May, he said: “We don't want relations between Europe and China to deteriorate. We see China not as a risk, but as a country with which cooperation means huge opportunities for us."

Peter Sijarto

The foreign minister was concerned that Brussels was considering measures against eight Chinese companies, which definitely "could aggravate and even disrupt" relations with China and "cause a certain negative spiral".

"It is impossible to win the war." The language of Hungarian diplomats is impressive. What connects the great power of the Far East with a relatively small and insignificant country? Hungarian officials do not share the EU's view that relations with China should be "de-risked" and that the country should be viewed as a systemic competitor.

Cooperation between Hungary and China means "more opportunities than risks," the Hungarian Foreign Minister reiterated recently in Beijing. The relations between the two countries have entered "the best period measured in the historical sense" - this is how State Council member Wang Ji, director of the Central Committee for Foreign Affairs of the Communist Party of China, congratulated his guest.

The EU does not tolerate human rights violations in the Uyghur-populated Xinjiang province or demonstrations of force in the vicinity of Taiwan. Meanwhile, Hungary persistently makes friends with China and Russia. Budapest shares Beijing's opinion that the West's support for Ukraine only inflames the conflict - to the detriment of Europe.

Viktor Orban and Xi Jinping

The military resistance of Ukraine is doomed to defeat - the Hungarian Prime Minister V Bloomberg interview in Qatar According to Viktor Orbán, additional aid will only increase the number of victims.

"Emotionally, this is a tragedy. We sympathize with the Ukrainians, but my duty as a politician is to save lives," said Orban, emphasizing that it is impossible to win the war.

Referring to this, the Hungarian government vetoed the allocation of another 500 million euros of financial support to Ukraine and, as a sign of support, opposes any further sanctions against Russia.

Eastern European countries, including Poland, shared Hungary's commitment to China. However, their enthusiasm has been dampened by China's attitude towards Russia during the Ukraine war, and they are also convinced that the business benefits of a political embrace with China have not lived up to expectations.

On the other hand, China actually benefits from friendship with Europe. The European Union is a vital trading partner, and if it wanted to (with a less security-oriented approach), it could soften the rivalry between America and China. Officials in Beijing are concerned about a recent trend -- not least a recent one by the G7 statement in Japan with criticism of China and a call for the expansion of transatlantic cooperation.

G-7 statement on China

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said China posed "the greatest challenge of our time" to global security and prosperity and that it was "increasingly authoritarian at home and abroad."

The situation in Hungary is certainly special. The worldviews of Viktor Orbán and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have many common features. Both - albeit to different degrees - are authoritarian, afraid of American power, and at the same time believe that the star of the West is fading. Both love Russia, and Viktor Orbán's friends in the business world even profit from deals with authoritarian regimes.

Hungary is in an excellent position to serve China's foreign policy interests. As a member of the European Union, it has the right of veto in foreign policy and security policy. Hungary is also a member of NATO, which has increasingly serious doubts about China. Hungary has sometimes shown abuse in the alliance, most recently with Sweden, siding with Ankara, which delayed Sweden's entry into the defense alliance.

The right of veto is actually a factor that adds importance to Hungary, but the German chancellor Olaf Scholz calls for reforming the functioning of the EU: according to him, the unanimous adoption of foreign policy should be canceled, which would mean the end of the member states' right of veto.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

The scandalous Tokai vineyard has returned to the ownership of the Orban family

Orban's scandalous vineyard

The total purchase price of the facility, located in 48 geographical areas, is HUF 273 million, he wrote Transparent based on information from the Sárazsadány Department of the United Local Government Office Bodrogolasz.

The 34-hectare site has a scandalous history. Orban's wife Aniko Levai owned it before, and now the vineyard has returned to the family in an adventurous way.

These 34 hectares in the Tokai wine region, in Sarazsadan, are partly the same land that Rachel's mother once bought and gave away after the scandal.

Rahel Orban's husband, NER oligarch Istvan Tiborc, acted on behalf of Rahel Orban. What is interesting about all this is that the current seller is Andrea Erzebet Kantor, the former manager and co-owner Szárhegy Dűlő-Sárazsadány-Tokajhegyalja Kereskedelmi és Szolgáltató Kft. (Szárhegy Kft.). Aniko Levai was part owner of the company when Szárhegy Kft received HUF 41 in grant aid during the first Orbán government. According to legend, it was then that Viktor Orbán demanded moderation. Élet és Irodalom also claimed that there were members' meetings attended by Viktor Orbán, and various state subsidies and real estate acquisitions were discussed. Because of this, the company Szárhegy Kft sued the newspaper, which it lost in first instance, but won in the second instance, despite this, after a series of articles, the fortunes of the Orbán family were also investigated by the parliamentary investigative committee.

Istvan Tiborc, Orban's son-in-law

Rahel Orbán (born 18 May 1989), eldest daughter of Viktor Orbán, is a businesswoman with a degree in tourism and hospitality. In 2022, she was the 20th most influential person in Hungary in terms of influence, and in 2023, in the Forbes ranking, she was ranked third among the most influential Hungarian women in the business category.

Aniko Levai sold her share of the business in 2005, but retained ownership of the land and leased a large portion of it to Szárhegy Kft. Title documents from two properties were accidentally found during the current transaction. It is established that both were previously owned by Aniko Levái, who in 2009 transferred them to Deže Kekeša, the former Hungarian ambassador in Paris, with a right of sale, and then gave them again to Andrea Erzsébet Cantor, also with a right of sale.

Rachel Orban and Aniko Levai

The vineyard is now returned to Aniko Levai's daughter, Rahel Orban, and is expected to be managed in the interests of Istvan Tiborc in the future. The last shareholder is Patrícius Borház Zrt. Abraham Goldmann Bizalmi Vagyonkezelő Zrt. in March 2023 transferred it to BDSPT Zrt. BDSPT, which belongs to Istvan Tiborc, the husband of Rahel Orbán.

Maryna Kovalchuk, own correspondent Newsky (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland), project manager V5 Media