Pakistan offers to mediate in US-Iran talks amid Trump signals
25.03.2026Pakistan's proposal: strategic move or diplomatic gesture?
US President Donald Trump (right) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (left) attend a meeting of the Peace Council held as part of the 56th World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 22, 2026. Harun Ozalp | Anadolu | Getty Images
Pakistan has formally approached the United States to mediate in talks to defuse tensions with Iran. The move comes amid an escalating standoff between Washington and Tehran, where US sanctions and Iranian missile tests have created an explosive situation. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a recent speech that Islamabad was ready to provide a platform for dialogue, drawing on its close ties with both sides.1
Why Pakistan? The country is in a unique geopolitical position. On the one hand, it is a long-time US ally, receiving billions of dollars in aid during the years of the “war on terror.” On the other, it shares a 959-kilometer border with Iran, and Pakistani Shiites constitute a significant minority, which facilitates cultural and religious ties. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently discussed security and trade issues during a visit to Tehran, which was a precursor to this proposal.2
Open source intelligence (OSINT) analysis shows that Islamabad has acted as a mediator on more than one occasion. In 2023, Pakistan helped normalize relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, leading to a historic reconciliation. Now, that experience is being extended to a larger arena. Experts at the Pakistan Institute for Strategic Studies say the offer is motivated not only by altruism but also by a desire to increase Islamabad’s influence in the region, especially amid an economic crisis at home.3
Trump's signals: from toughness to diplomacy?
Donald Trump, who is preparing for his inauguration, is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, his recent statements in an interview with Fox News are tough: “Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, period.” He promises “maximum pressure,” citing the killing of General Qassem Soleimani in 2020 as an example of determination.4
On the other hand, Trump has repeatedly praised the Pakistani leadership. During a meeting with Sharif in New York in November 2024, he called Pakistan an “extraordinary partner” and hinted at the possible resumption of military aid. An analysis of Trump’s posts on the X network (formerly Twitter) shows that since November 1, he has published five posts about the Middle East, in which he mentioned three times the need for “smart negotiations” rather than just force.5
These signals reflect the internal divisions within Trump’s team. Hawks like John Bolton insist on isolating Iran, while pragmatists like Jared Kushner see the benefits of diplomacy. The Pakistani offer could be a win-win compromise for Trump: avoiding another war before the election but keeping the pressure on.
Tehran's reaction: caution or openness?
Iran has reacted with restraint. President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a speech to the UN General Assembly, said Tehran was ready for dialogue, but only without “American dictates.” At the same time, Iranian media outlets such as Tasnim News have positively covered the Pakistani initiative, calling it a “step towards justice.”6
Iran's domestic politics add to the intrigue. After the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash in May 2024, Pezeshkian, a reformist, has been trying to ease sanctions pressure. OSINT data from Iranian forums shows a rise in discussions about the talks: the hashtag #IranUSDialogue has garnered 150 mentions in a week.7
Tehran's stance is not accidental. Iran is facing economic collapse, with inflation reaching 40% and oil exports down 20% due to sanctions. Pakistan's mediation could pave the way for a partial lifting of restrictions without losing face in front of its domestic audience.
Historical context: lessons from past crises
To understand the relevance of the proposal, let’s look back at history. In 1953, the US and UK staged a coup in Iran against Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh, which laid the foundation for hostilities. Trump’s “maximum pressure” in 2018, when he withdrew from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) nuclear deal, led to an escalation: attacks on tanker convoys, the assassination of Soleimani, and Iranian strikes on American bases.8
Pakistan is not a passive observer in this story. In 1979, after the Islamic Revolution, Islamabad was the first to recognize the new regime in Iran. During the Afghan war of the 1980s, Pakistan coordinated the supply of weapons to the mujahideen with the United States and Saudi Arabia, which strengthened ties with Tehran despite sectarian differences (Pakistanis are Sunni, Iranians are Shiite).
The current context includes the war in Gaza and the role of the “Axis of Resistance” (Hezbollah, Houthis) supported by Iran. The US strikes on the Houthis in Yemen in October 2024 have heightened tensions, making Pakistani mediation timely.
Geopolitical stakes: who benefits from mediation?
For Pakistan, success would be a diplomatic triumph. Islamabad seeks to balance the US, China (through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC), and Russia. The mediation could bring in $2 billion to $3 billion in US aid, Pakistani analysts estimate.9
The US would get a chance to avoid a war that would cost $1-2 trillion, according to the Rand Corporation. Iran could export an additional 1,5 million barrels of oil per day. But there are risks: failure of the talks would further isolate Pakistan.
Regional players have reacted differently. Saudi Arabia, Iran's rival, has expressed skepticism, while China, an ally of both, supported the initiative in a Foreign Ministry statement.10
Future scenarios: from peace to escalation
Optimistic scenario: Talks in Islamabad lead to a new JCPOA 2.0 with restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Pessimistic: Trump rejects the offer, Iran accelerates uranium enrichment to 90%, provoking strikes.
OSINT monitoring of satellite imagery shows a buildup of forces: Iran has moved 10 fighters to the border with Israel, the US has moved two aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Pakistan is conducting joint exercises with Iran, Eqtedar-2024, demonstrating readiness.11
The key to success is in the details: Will Trump agree to a Pakistani platform? Will Tehran accept conditions without “maximum pressure”? These questions will determine whether the spark over the Gulf dies out or a new fire breaks out.
Sources
- Reuters: Pakistan offers to mediate US-Iran war talks
- Dawn: Pakistan proposes mediation between US, Iran
- Al Jazeera: Pakistan offers to facilitate US-Iran talks
- Fox News: Trump on Iran
- US State Department: Sharif-Trump meeting
- Tasnim News: Iran on Pakistan mediation
- ISW: Iran Update
- CFR: US-Iran Timeline
- Brookings: Pakistan's Role
- Chinese MFA Statement
- Janes: Eqtedar-2024
