Trump's truce crumbles in a matter of days: Israel responds with airstrikes on Gaza after shooting in Rafah

The Current Middle East: When Agreements Expire Faster Than Political Statements

Less than a week later, the cautious optimism of many experts, authorities and displaced people in the Gaza Strip has turned out to be an illusion. The “Trump truce” initiated with the support of the US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey has officially collapsed: Israeli forces responded with a series of massive airstrikes after an attack on their soldiers in the key district center of Rafah¹Every morning in Gaza begins with a new sound of sirens, the roar of explosions, and the argument of diplomats that “this is only a response to a provocation.”

What happened in Rafah: details of the attack and the first reaction

On October 19, the Israeli military reported that its units on the eastern side of the Yellow Line (controlled area) came under grenade launcher and sniper fire from militants allegedly affiliated with Hamas.¹. These troops were engaged in clearing terrorist infrastructure. In response, the Israeli air force and artillery struck terrorist tunnels and buildings in the same sector.

Whose responsibility? The parties' statements and the battle for interpretation

Hamas's military wing immediately denied involvement in the incident. "We are adhering to the ceasefire in all areas of the Gaza Strip," their statement said. The Israeli command responded: "This is a gross violation of the ceasefire agreement. The response will be tough and targeted."¹.

Geography of the new escalation: from Rafah to Khan Yunis

Not only district centers were hit. Palestinian media are posting footage from Khan Yunis, where entire neighborhoods are burning: “aircraft destroyed several tunnels and structures under which the groups were masked – officials say the immediate threat has been eliminated”¹Local residents report serious damage to civilian infrastructure.

From Hamas: Diplomacy, Information Warfare, and Justification

The movement's strategy is clear - to distance itself from each individual provocation, accusing Israel of "unfounded repression." While Israeli and American intelligence agencies are reporting a plot to undermine the ceasefire, which was being prepared by militants with plans to attack civilians. The US State Department separately warned of the risk of escalation even before the rockets near Rafah¹.

Truce timeline: a brief respite and powerless diplomacy

The parties agreed on a temporary ceasefire on October 13. Guarantees were provided by Qatar, Turkey, the United States, and Egypt, ambitiously declaring that the fire had ceased forever. “The war is over,” Donald Trump declared then, becoming the political face of the agreement.¹However, the withdrawal of Israeli units, which was supposed to be a gesture of trust, opened the chessboard for provocations...

Shadows of previous conflicts: repression, executions and pressure on the civilian population

News sources report public executions in the Gaza Strip – Hamas explains this as punishment for collaborating with the enemy, while human rights activists and representatives of the Palestinian Authority condemn “horrific crimes.” A few days ago, videos appeared in the city center, capturing outbreaks of violence against civilians.

Why has diplomacy stalled?

The political cost of the breakdown of the agreements has already led to international statements from the UN, the EU, and Arab countries. All outside players warn of an “endless circle of responses,” calling on the parties to resume negotiations, but against the backdrop of a new wave of alarms and attacks, this signal so far rings like a deafening bell.¹.

What's next: the region between "quiet skies" and "new flares"

Further developments, according to forecasts by experts from Reuters, Al Jazeera, Haaretz, and The Guardian, may follow several scenarios:

• rapid escalation in the coming days if the parties do not stop the “strike-response” logic;
• international pressure and a return to negotiations under the guarantees of new partners;
• expansion of hostilities to adjacent regions – up to the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula.

For Ukraine and the world: lessons from the broken silence

The Western world sees this situation as an “indicator of the level of stability of modern diplomacy.” For Ukrainians, it is an important signal: a peaceful settlement, even under pressure from major players, always remains fragile, and the war subsides only where there are effective guarantees, not paper promises.

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