After the “12-Day War”: How Iran Has Changed and What Awaits the Regime After Coming Out of Shelter

While Iran's supreme leader remained in hiding, the country experienced its most dramatic crisis in decades. When he returns to the public sphere, he will find a completely different Iran - destroyed cities, a demoralized society, a strengthened repressive machine and new geopolitical challenges. What changed in the 12 days of the war with Israel, how it affected the government, the people and the future of the country - a detailed analysis based on international sources.

“12-Day War”: the scale of destruction and losses

During the 12 days of the Israeli-Iranian war, Israel launched more than 1 strikes on Iranian territory, flying about 480 sorties and dropping 1 munitions. Iran International[2]. The main targets were nuclear facilities (Natanz, Isfahan, Fordow), military bases, missile complexes, airports, energy infrastructure. The western regions and the suburbs of Tehran suffered the greatest destruction. According to Israeli sources, at least eight nuclear facilities were seriously damaged, and part of the strategic uranium reserves were evacuated or destroyed. Iran International[2], BBC[1].

Iran responded by firing about 600 missiles at Israel, but most of them were intercepted. Civilian casualties in both countries included dozens of deaths and thousands of injuries. Over 30 buildings were destroyed in Israel. Iran International[2].

Internal atmosphere: fear, repression, uncertainty

After the bombings and missile attacks, Iranian society was in a state of deep shock. According to human rights activists, the authorities have sharply intensified repression: since the beginning of the war, more than 700 people have been arrested on political and “espionage” charges, at least six have been executed on charges of collaborating with Israel HEI[6], Times of Israel[7], Star Tribune[16].

Residents of Tehran and other cities are talking about their fear of a new wave of repression: “After every crisis, the government punishes its own people, this time it could be even harsher,” says a resident of the capital. The government has mobilized additional forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Kurdish areas, tightened control on the borders with Iraq, Pakistan, Azerbaijan HEI[6].

Many Iranians believe that only a minority still supports the regime, while the majority is in a state of fear and apathy. At the same time, human rights activists warn that the authorities may "take out their anger" for the defeat on ordinary citizens. Times of Israel[7], Star Tribune[16].

Political system: the regime survived, but weakened

Despite the massive destruction and losses, the Iranian regime retained control of the country. The Supreme Leader, clergy, and security structures remained in place, and Israeli attempts to provoke “regime change” failed. Al Jazeera[15], Le Monde[11]. However, the authority of the authorities was undermined: the Israeli attacks demonstrated the vulnerability of nuclear facilities, the weakness of air defense, and the massive infiltration of Israeli intelligence. HEI[6].

Iran's parliament passed a law to terminate cooperation with the IAEA, effectively closing the country to international inspectors. BBC[1], The Grio[19].

Economy: energy, infrastructure, sanctions

The war has dealt a serious blow to the Iranian economy. Part of the energy infrastructure has been destroyed, electricity supplies have been disrupted, and oil refineries are operating with interruptions. Calcalist Tech[5]. Sanctions that existed before have been tightened — the West demands a complete halt to uranium enrichment, and China and India have reduced purchases of Iranian oil due to the risks of secondary sanctions. Le Monde[11].

At the same time, oil remained the main source of income, and China was a key political and economic partner that called for stability but was not ready to openly challenge the US. The Grio[19].

Geopolitics: a new balance of power in the region

The war changed the balance of power in the Middle East. Israel strengthened its status as a major US ally, demonstrating its ability to conduct large-scale operations deep behind enemy lines. Le Monde[11], The Jerusalem Post[8]. At the same time, Iran has lost some of its influence over proxy groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, and its “myth of invulnerability” has been destroyed.

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Turkey are trying to balance condemnation of Israeli strikes with a desire to reduce the Iranian threat Carnegie endowment[14]. Gulf countries hope for a new wave of investment if the region remains stable Calcalist Tech[5].

International Diplomacy: A Fragile Truce and Uncertainty

The US-brokered truce looks fragile. Both sides accuse each other of violations, and Israel continues to demand an end to Iran's nuclear program. BBC[1], CNN[20]. Iran, in turn, announced its withdrawal from the IAEA agreements and the acceleration of nuclear development. The Grio[19].

China calls for “stable peace” but does not intervene directly. The US tries to maintain a balance to prevent further escalation The Grio[19], Al Jazeera[12].

Society: fear, hope, finding a way out

Iranians are divided. Some hope for a loosening of controls, others for a new wave of protests, but most fear new repression. Times of Israel[7], Star Tribune[16] Experts point out that even if the regime has weakened, it maintains control through power structures and fear.

Problems with electricity, shortages of medicines, inflation, rising unemployment — all this creates a new social reality in which the authorities try to maintain order only through force.

The future: scenarios for Iran and the region

Analysts name several scenarios:

• Intensification of repression and “tightening of the screws” (most likely in the short term).
• Gradual loss of control and growth of protest movements.
• International pressure and new negotiations on the nuclear program.
• Regional escalation in the event of new attacks or provocations.

None of the scenarios guarantees stability. A ceasefire may only be a pause before a new round of conflict. Asia Times[13].

Conclusions: Iran after the war is a country in search of a new balance

When Iran's supreme leader emerges from hiding, he will see a country that has lost some of its strength but has not broken. The society is divided between fear and hope, the regime is weakened but clinging to power. The war with Israel has changed the regional balance but has not brought final peace. Ahead lies uncertainty, a struggle for influence and new challenges for the entire Middle East.

Sources

BBC,
Iran International,
HEI,
Times of Israel,
Star Tribune,
Le Monde,
Al Jazeera,
The Grio,
Calcalist Tech,
Carnegie endowment,
Asia Times,
CNN,
Al Jazeera,
The Jerusalem Post