The aftertaste of the American primaries. History of the question and prospects

Exclusive. The primaries in the USA ended with the most likely, long-predicted result: Biden and Trump reached the finals. There are no new figures at the head of the two main US parties, but the intrigue of "who will win" remains. Apparently, the candidates will finish the race at the photo finish, and the uncertainty will remain until the last ballot is counted.

Meanwhile, the candidates are very different, based on different groups of the population, and their course in the White House will also be different. Even with correction for pre-election exaggerations.

See also: Super Tuesday in the USA and the road to it. Almost no surprises. Biden and Trump are leading, but it's still too early to write off Haley

What's next: help with dates

The Democratic and Republican parties of the USA must officially nominate their candidates at their national conventions. Republicans will do it on July 15, 2024, and Democrats will do it on August 19. Independent candidates must meet approximately the same deadlines. After that, debates and agitation will continue during the fall of 2024.

Election Day in the USA appointed for November 5, 2024 (the first Tuesday after the first Monday of the month). On this day, a national vote will be held in the country on the following issues:

– Election of members of the electoral college, who will then vote for the president;

– Elections of the House of Representatives of the US Congress;

– Election of 33 out of 100 US Senate senators.

On December 16, the electoral college will vote directly for the president (the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December, on the 41st day after the day of the national vote). Voters do not gather together, but vote all in their states.

A special commission of the US Congress will count the votes, and on January 6, 2024, the chairman of the Senate will announce the official final results of the presidential election. However, already after November 5, the candidate selected by the total number of voters receives the right to be named president and is introduced to the course of affairs of the outgoing president (if the current head of state and executive power is not re-elected).

On January 20, 2025, the inauguration of the president-elect will take place, after which he will immediately take office.

Age of candidates as a sign of crisis

At the time of the election on November 5, Trump will be 77, Biden 82 (without two weeks). In principle, age does not matter if candidates can perform presidential duties. And they can do it, despite the fears voiced in the mass media.

Nevertheless, under normal conditions, the "sedentary old men" should have been supported and moved aside by relatively young candidates eager to take their place - this is a normal situation of a generational change. The fact that we do not observe it means the presence of a political crisis, moreover, in two parties at once.

It is not that the youth growing from below is not there at all - it is. But, with the exception of Nikki Haley, politically she is weak and colorless, and even Haley lost to Trump by a wide margin. Moreover, Haile is politically secondary to Trump, and built her campaign during the primaries on the denial of Trump's isolationism. OK, Trump's isolationism is bad, it's true. But what in return? On the positive side, Hayla was pretty pale.

However, the programs of all candidates, including the finalists Biden and Trump, look pale and blurred. This becomes especially obvious if you look at materials from elections 40-50 years ago. What, in the world, and inside America have become few challenges? No, their number has multiplied. But the groups of voters to whom the candidates could appeal have become very blurred, multiplied and distanced from each other. And it has become almost impossible to offer something sufficiently bright, concrete, and attractive for a sufficiently large number of citizens - hence the gray blur.

In the American Constitution and the system of elections, de facto bipartisanship is inherent, albeit in an implicit form. The founding fathers, who developed a political system that has worked properly for two and a half centuries, assumed that the emergence of too many parties can lead to the victory of the "largest minority."

At the same time, there is no direct ban on party pluralism, there are dozens of parties, but national parties capable of nominating their candidate for the post of president and winning, each time there are only two, and, formally, each of them is a union of separate parties in each state and a broad ideological coalition.

In total, two parties must divide and contain all the complexity and multifacetedness of American society. At the same time, over the past 30-50 years, American society has changed a lot - and become more complicated. Now it is in a period of rapid and deep social changes, which in many aspects are not so much evolutionary as revolutionary.

As a result, contradictions are growing both between parties and within parties.

Within the parties, this blocks the change of political generations, since it becomes extremely difficult to agree on a new candidate at some point. It is so difficult that, as a compromise, you have to agree on a candidate agreed earlier, despite his advanced age - although 82 is, no matter how hard you say it, a lot. Or, as an option, an energetic adventurer with absolutely populist slogans breaks through to the head of the party. Of course, populism is characteristic of modern politics in general, and of American politics in particular, but Trump is definitely an exaggeration. This is how the crisis-troubled time led to the repeated confrontation between Biden and Trump...

Sergey Ilchenko, deputy editor-in-chief Newsky

Extension