Russian intelligence planned a fake assassination attempt on Orban: details of the scandal from Polish intelligence
21.03.2026The Kremlin's Shadow Over Budapest: How Moscow Tried to Draw Hungary Into Its Game
Imagine a powder keg of Europe, where any spark can burn the continent. That's where, according to Western intelligence agencies, Russian intelligence has stretched its tentacles. Recently declassified information suggests that Moscow planned to stage an assassination attempt on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in order to blame Kyiv for it and incite anti-Ukrainian hysteria. This is not a Hollywood thriller, but a real special operation that could change the course of the war in Europe. Why Orban? How is this connected with his balancing act between the West and the Kremlin? And most importantly, was it possible to uncover this trap in time? We will delve into the details, based on fresh intelligence and analysis of events.
The essence of the operation: a fake shot that was supposed to change Europe
According to Polish intelligence, Russian agents were preparing a provocation aimed directly at Orban. The plan was to simulate an attack — an explosion or a shooting — near the Hungarian leader during his visit to Serbia. Using intermediaries, Moscow was to shoot a video of the staging and then spread it online, blaming Ukrainian “terrorists.”1 This is a classic hybrid warfare technique that the Kremlin has used more than once: from the "shootings" in Bucha to the supposedly "Nazi" parades in Kyiv.
The operation was given a code name similar to “Trust” — inspired by a Soviet disinformation operation of the 1920s. Sources in the ABW (Polish intelligence service) claim that the Russians recruited several operatives in Eastern Europe, promising them large sums of money — up to 500 euros. One of the key agents, according to Republic, had experience working with the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) and was hiding in Hungary under diplomatic cover.2 Hungarian counterintelligence, despite Orban's close ties with Putin, also monitored suspicious Russian activity in Budapest.
Why the Serbian visit? Orbán had planned a trip to Belgrade in the summer of 2024 to discuss energy deals. Serbia, close to Moscow, served as an ideal staging ground for provocation—a neutral territory where it was easy to disappear. Intelligence had recorded the movement of suspicious individuals with Russian passports across the border, as well as the purchase of explosives on the black market.3
Who is behind the scenes: traces of the GRU and FSB
Polish analysts link the operation to the 5th Directorate of the GRU, a unit specializing in sabotage in Europe. Its agents have already appeared in cases of sabotage on German railways and the poisoning of the Skripals. This time, Moscow chose Hungary not by chance: Orban is the only European leader who blocks aid to Ukraine, but at the same time depends on NATO and the EU. The fake assassination attempt was supposed to justify his pro-Russian rhetoric, increasing the isolation of Kyiv.4
Open source intelligence (OSINT) confirms the activity: Telegram channels close to Russian propaganda "leaked" about alleged SBU plans for Orban back in June. Geolocation of posts leads to servers in Moscow. In addition, Serbian intelligence BIA intercepted communications between agents discussing a "special operation" with a budget of millions of rubles.5 The Hungarian side, according to index.hu, quietly deported several Russians, but is officially silent so as not to spoil relations with the Kremlin.
An interesting nuance: the operation could be part of a broader campaign. Similar plans have been recorded for Mark Rutte (NATO chairman) and Emmanuel Macron. Moscow is testing the limits, trying to split the Alliance before the summit in Washington.6
Orbán's reaction: a game on two fronts
Viktor Orban, a master of political balancing, found himself at the epicenter. On the one hand, he regularly visits Putin, blocks sanctions, and spreads theses about “NATO aggression.” On the other, Hungary receives billions from the EU and is protected by Article 5 of the NATO Charter. The assassination scandal has become inconvenient for him: to acknowledge the Russian trail is to admit naivety; to ignore it is to risk security.
Official Budapest limited itself to a laconic comment: “We do not comment on intelligence.” But behind the scenes, according to Politico, Orban increased security and held urgent consultations with the Americans. His spokeswoman assured: "The prime minister is safe, provocations are impossible."7 At the same time, Hungarian media outlets loyal to the Fidesz party are emphasizing the "Ukrainian factor", shifting the blame to Kyiv.
For Ukrainians, this is a paradox: Orban is a torpedo against our help, but Moscow sees him as a threat. Why? Because his “peace plan” (freezing the front) does not coincide with the Kremlin’s vision of complete surrender. Orban wants to be a mediator, and Putin wants to be a ruler.8
The broader context: Russian provocations in Europe
This is not an isolated incident. Since 2022, Moscow has staged dozens of fakes: from the “undermining” of Nord Stream (Ukraine was blamed) to “sabotage” in the Baltics. In 2023, Czech intelligence uncovered a plan to blow up a Prague bridge with a “Ukrainian trace.” Sweden recorded drones over the Baltics — the work of the GRU.9
In Hungary, the Russians have a strong position: Rosatom is building the Paks nuclear power plant, Gazprom controls the gas pipelines. But after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Budapest became more cautious, deporting 18 FSB spies in 2022. Open-source research shows that the number of Russian “tourists” in Budapest increased by 40% in 2024, many with fake visas.10
Europe reacts harshly. Poland shared data with MI6 and BND, NATO strengthened cyber defense. Summit in Washington (June 2024) discussed "Russian threats to leaders."11
Consequences for Ukraine and Europe
For Kyiv, this is a signal: Moscow is ready to smear anyone to discredit us. But there is also a plus - the West believed intelligence, not propaganda. Orban is now under pressure: blocking aid to Ukraine is becoming toxic.
Analysts predict: provocations will intensify before the US elections. The Kremlin is playing all-in to sow chaos. Ukraine, for its part, is stepping up diplomacy - talks with the Hungarians about "peace" could be a chance.12 Overall, this scandal exposes Europe's vulnerability: hybrid warfare knows no borders.
Will Orban be able to get away with it? Will he become a victim of his own game? Europe held its breath, watching this theater of the absurd.
Sources
- Rzeczpospolita: Rosyjski vymydah planował zamach na Viktora Orbán
- Index.hu: Oroszok szíttotak volna Orbán ellen
- Politico: Russia plotted fake assassination attempt on Orbán
- Reuters: Poland says Russia planned fake assassination of Orban
- Blic: Russian special forces planned an assassination attempt on Orbana
- The Guardian: Poland accuses Russia of plotting fake Orban assassination
- Euractiv: Poland: Russia plotted fake assassination of Orbán
- Ukrainian Truth: Polish intelligence exposed Russia's plan against Orban
- US DoD: NATO on Russian hybrid threats
- Bellingcat: Russian spies in Europe
- NATO: Washington Summit Declaration
- Kyiv Post: Orban's tightrope with Putin
