Sanctions against Iran. Apart from them, will the USA agree to strike deep into Russia?

In 2022, the Iranians supplied Russia with Shahed UAVs, now ballistic missiles. Stories with drones and missiles develop very similarly. But if 2 years ago our partners punished Tehran mildly, now the sanctions look more convincing. пишет "DS" columnist Yury Vasylchenko.

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From the downed UIA plane to ballistic missiles. How Iran lied and lied

At the end of August 2022, The Washington Post reported: the first Iranian combat drones arrived in Russia for use during the war against Ukraine. This was not confirmed until, on October 10, Shahed-136 kamikaze drones were recorded for the first time during the massive shelling of Ukrainian cities. Official Tehran's reaction was traditional for him: it's not us, we're being slandered. You can recall how the Iranians lied after they shot down a UIA passenger plane on January 8, 2020. At first, they denied the commission of a crime, delayed its investigation, and then hurriedly condemned their military, who were called guilty of the attack on the plane. But they have not yet recognized full international legal responsibility. In order not to reimburse large sums to the families of the dead.

In October 2022, the then head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Hossein Amir-Abdollahiyan, was openly cynical in response to accusations of drone deliveries: "We believe that arming any side of the conflict will only prolong the war, and we do not consider the war right, neither in Afghanistan, we are in Syria or Yemen." Allah punished him for lying - on May 19 of this year, the minister died together with President Ibrahim Raisi during a helicopter crash.

And how did the regime of the ayatollahs not be ordered by the highest spiritual entity, but by the international community? The United States and the European Union imposed sanctions against a number of individuals and legal entities involved in the supply of killer drones to the Russians. Moreover, the EU was proud of its record-breaking short decision-making times. The sanctions consisted in freezing the assets of persons and companies involved in the transfer of "Shahidov". In particular, three generals and the Shahed Aviation Industries corporation. After that, restrictive measures were applied to Iran several more times. Up to now - in May and June of this year. The European Union and the United States imposed sanctions against Iranian companies and individuals involved in the production and supply of drones to Russia and militants in the Middle East. That is, the allies acted traditionally - they introduced personal sanctions for the provision of attack drones to the Russians (they later renamed the received drones to "Geranium"). Iranian generals were not afraid of them.

The official Kyiv's response should also be mentioned here. Ukraine still maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, although the question of severing them was raised earlier. On September 23, 2022, our Ministry of Foreign Affairs withdrew the accreditation of the Iranian ambassador and decided to significantly reduce the number of diplomatic staff at the embassy. By that time, Ambassador Manuchehr Morada was already outside of Ukraine, he fled from Kiev to one of our neighboring countries from Russian missiles. Therefore, on the part of our ministry, it was rather a symbolic gesture. Ukraine introduced its own sanctions against Iran. For 50 years. It happened in May 2023. But here it should be noted that Ukraine's economic relations with the Iranians were not at a high level even before the war. In 2021, Iran ranked seventh among importers of Ukrainian grain. Ukrainians bought fruits, nuts, and vegetables and processed them. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the trade turnover between the two countries in the last pre-war hour amounted to $723,7 million. For comparison: in 2021, the trade turnover between Ukraine and Turkey amounted to more than $7 billion.

Iran received sanctions for Putin's ballistics. What and who are we talking about

The press was the first to report on the intentions of the Iranians to transfer ballistic missiles to the Russians. And quite a long time ago. And last week, The Wall Street Journal, citing European and American officials, confirmed the fact of the transfer of the deadly iron. This time, unlike the history of the "Shahids", whose Iranian origin was recognized only after the downing of several "mopeds", our partners decided not to wait until they were shown the downed evidence. The head of the State Department, Anthony Blinken, said yesterday: Russia has received missiles. And he admitted that it could use weapons in the coming weeks. Yesterday, on the website of the US Ministry of Finance, there was a message about sanctions against legal entities and individuals of Iran. The airline Iran Air has come under the restriction. Sanctions against the main Iranian airline were also announced by France, Germany and Great Britain. That is, it means the cancellation of air traffic with Iran.

In addition, the United States declared the "blocked ownership" of four vessels involved in the supply of Iranian drones and missiles to Russia. Officials of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Ministry of Defense of Iran were sanctioned, including the contact person of the Russian government in the Iranian Ministry of Defense Ruholla Kateba and the employee of Shahid Kharrazi Industries Ebrahim Bahrami, involved in the training of the Russian invaders in Iran. The list also includes the network of the Azadegan transport company, which is important for the logistics operations of the IRGC; the Farzanegan Propulsion Systems design bureau, which provided the Russians with samples of engines for cruise missiles, and three of its representatives. The list also includes the chairman of the board of directors of MG-Flot, Dagestan Jamaldin Pashaev, who controls a network of Russian shipping companies. Four vessels regularly deliver cargo between Russia and Iran via the Caspian Sea.

Following the Americans, the British introduced sanctions. Seven legal entities and individuals from Iran were included in their sanctions list. Among them is Baharestan Kish Company, which is engaged in the production of drones. In addition to the Iranians, London imposed sanctions against the Russian Aerospace Forces, the 924th State Center for Unmanned Aviation and the Russian Military Transport Aviation Command. The British government also announced a new law on strengthening trade sanctions against Iran aimed at goods used in the production of ballistic missiles, drones and other types of weapons. Other allies will join the American and British sanctions. This time, the bans and restrictions applied to Iranian and Russian figures and individual companies look much more powerful than two years ago under Shahedy. The sanctions against Iran Air are particularly impressive. The state carrier of Iran flies to about 20 countries around the world. Among the key destinations are Dubai, Karachi, Jeddah (pilgrimage tours) and, of course, Moscow. Now the UAE, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will either have to at least limit flights from Iran, or go against the West.

By the way, about Iran Air. The history of sanctions against this company, which has one of the oldest and most worn parks in the world, is very instructive. In 2010, after the ban imposed by the United States, Iranian civil aircraft were denied refueling in a number of countries. But not all, even American allies, agreed with this. Iranians continued to refuel at Dubai airport. In Europe, they found a clever way around the problem — they sent Iran Air aircraft for refueling at small airfields. In general, although this step did not show total solidarity, it caused significant economic damage to the Iranian airline. Its planes stopped flying to large airports, which immediately affected passenger traffic to Europe. However, already in 2015, under the presidency of Barack Obama (and the vice president was Joe Biden), sanctions against Iran's civil aviation were canceled. After that, Tehran slightly updated its aircraft fleet. But already in 2018, due to the deception of the Iranians about their nuclear program, the USA revoked the licenses for the sale of Boeing and Airbus aircraft. Then the Europeans did not support the call of the Americans to end cooperation with Iran.

Are the current sanctions terrible for Iran?

Let's draw some conclusions. Restrictions against Iran and its Russian friends look like a significant step forward compared to previous sanctions for armed support of Russia. However, one should not forget that this state has been living under various sanctions since the 1970s, when Islamic fundamentalists came to power there. The main source of filling Iran's budget remains the sale of oil, and about 90% of it is bought by China. Not always directly, often through third countries. So as long as this global player fills the coffers of the ayatollahs with money, they will remain in power until then. That is, the solution to the problem of Iran in its status as one of the world's outcasts is in the hands of Beijing. This is the first moment.

Second: in Tehran, they perfectly understood that the sale of ballistic missiles to Russia will not remain without a sanction response. But they intentionally escalated. It is easy to understand that this step was taken to raise the stakes in the Middle East, where Iran has its proxies in Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen and beyond. The history of Iran Air will prove to be a litmus test for identifying Tehran's allies.

The third point: the sanctions look both like a punishment for the Iranians and a prevention for the Russians — if you use the received missiles, Ukraine's allies will cross some of the red lines. Yesterday's statement by Anthony Blinken draws attention: Joe Biden can give consent to strikes by American missiles deep into Russia. Will this stop Putin? Unfortunately, no, so the Ukrainian air defense needs to prepare for air battles with Iranian missiles. After the application of which, most likely, the next bans of the allies on the use of their weapons will fall.

The fourth point: Ukraine has no other serious steps left against Tehran except the severance of diplomatic relations. On September 8, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Shahryar Amuzegar, the temporary representative of Iran's affairs in Ukraine. He was warned about the consequences of confirming the information about the transfer of missiles to Russia. After the introduction of sanctions by the Americans, the British and our other partners, there are two ways: simply join them or send the last Iranian diplomats home.

Read on Newsky "Russia after Kursk. The results of a sociological survey" and look at Boring Pence YouTube channel.

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