Super Tuesday in the USA and the road to it. Almost no surprises. Biden and Trump are leading, but it's still too early to write off Haley

Exclusive. Shortly before Super Tuesday, February 27, in Michigan, the Republican and Democratic primaries were held on the same day for the first time in 2024. As usual, any registered voter could take part in them, but only in one: either republican or democratic.

Democratic Party: US President Joe Biden won 81,1% of the vote. 13,3% chose the "undecided" option, which observers interpret as a protest against Biden's support for Israel in its military operation against Hamas, which is an undoubted success of pro-Palestinian propaganda. Politician and businessman Dean Phillips – 3,0%, writer Marianna Williamson – 2,7%.

Republican Party: Ex-president of the USA Donald Trump - 68,2%, his only competitor Nikki Haley - 26,5%, the option "undecided" 3,0%.

Michigan is the so-called "wavering" states, of which there are thirteen in the USA. In these states, there is no historically developed tradition of voting for Democrats or Republicans, and the popularity of both parties is approximately equal. Voting results in these states have played a decisive role in the outcome of elections more than once in the past. In other words, Democrats in Michigan are noticeably more mobilized than Republicans.

District of Columbia, March 3

Nikki Haley won the Republican Party primary with 62,9% of the vote to Trump's 33,2%. The bonus is pleasant but predictable. And at the same time - indicative. 100% of the residents of the District of Columbia, which includes the capital Washington, are citizens and federal employees, among them a large percentage of people with a high level of education. This is by no means Trump's electorate. Trump lost the primary in the District of Columbia and in 2016, when he eventually won the US presidential election. As for the representativeness, the results of the elections in the District of Columbia once again demonstrate: the city votes against Trump, the village votes for Trump. Which is also available in the USA. Simply in the form of "towns", in particular, because the "village" in our understanding was destroyed back in Britain in the XNUMXth century, from which the mass settlement of the eastern coast of North America began...

Follow our and also: MAGA: National Socialist American Workers Party

Super Tuesday, March 5

Republican and Democratic primaries were held simultaneously in fifteen states and one US territory. The number of states where there is a struggle for the votes of the electors includes California and Texas, in which 70% of the electors from the states necessary for a candidate to be nominated for the post of president are determined.

The primaries were held against the background of the decision of the Federal Supreme Court to cancel Trump's exclusion from the ballots in the primaries in the states of Colorado, Maine and Illinois on the basis of the 14th amendment to the Constitution on sedition. This decision was made by the Supreme Courts of the three listed states. But the federal Supreme Court did not make the opposite decision, but referred the issue to the competence of Congress.

See also: Shocking Trump. What does the case of the state of Colorado mean?

See also: Almost Confederate. Why did the Supreme Court allow Trump to run for office?

The general results of Super Tuesday, plus the states where primaries or caucuses were held earlier, look like this as of March 6:

Democrats - Biden leads everywhere.

Republicans: Trump leads almost everywhere, but... what kind of yellow is that? And this is the state of Vermont, where Haley won. True, it cannot be said that with a crushing score: 49,9% against 45,9% for Trump, but, nevertheless.

In the states marked in gray, primaries have not yet been held.

As a result, according to the collected votes of voters, the picture is as follows:

Of the 1968 voters required for nomination at the national convention of the Democratic Party, Biden received the support of 1562. In fact, he has no competitors. 1572 voters out of 3934 voted. Ten voters are listed as "undecided," but they actually have no one to vote for except for Biden. They can only abstain from voting, as a sign of protest against the excessive support of the Biden administration for Israel.

Of the 1215 voters required for the nomination at the national convention of the Republican Party, Trump received the support of 954. 1040 voters were determined out of 2429. 86 voters support Hale, who won in the state of Vermont. The 12 voters who supported DeSantis (9) and Ramaswamy (3) who withdrew from the race are likely to go to Trump.

What's next?

Next, there will be primaries in those states in which they have not yet been held, and then party congresses. Republican Party - in mid-July, Democratic Party - in mid-August. And, finally, the actual elections - they will be held on November 5.

In parallel with this, the criminal prosecution of Trump will proceed in the case of an attempt to cancel the results of the presidential elections in 2020. In early February, the federal appeals court in Washington denied Trump immunity from criminal prosecution in the case of the storming of the Capitol by his supporters. The first criminal trial in his case will open at the end of March.

The results of the primaries. Trump, Hales and percentage tails

Everything is clear with the Democrats. Unless something extraordinary happens, Biden and Kamala Harris will go to the polls. Very, by the way, a lady underestimated by commentators - just in case she suddenly has to stand at the presidential wheel.

Things are more complicated with the Republicans. Of course, Hale will not catch up with Trump. And he will most likely get 1215+ voters. And neither the Congress nor the court will remove him from the elections. But Trump is now positioned as an existential threat to American democracy. In fact, the entire democratic campaign is built on this. And, by and large, he positions himself in exactly the same way.

No caucuses, no primaries - no elections yet. This is the vote of politicized activists. The majority of voters do not vote for them.

Finally, in each state, in the Republican and Democratic primaries (or caucuses), in addition to the winning majority, there is a losing minority. Which is not small at all.

Yes, if the results of the winner are Biden on the vote of the asset in most states they fluctuate around 80-90%, then the results of the winner - Trump are often in the range of 60-70%. And these 40-30% (remember, this is a political asset, not ordinary voters) who, in general, are for Republicans, but not for Trump, will not go anywhere. And Trump, the anti-democrat and potential dictator, will be hammered, hammered and hammered.

Hayley won't disappear either. If she loses at the congress, she can nominate herself as a third, independent candidate - the law allows this. He will win - he won't win, but he will take some of the votes of the republicans and wavering people with him. Something, of course, will lead to Biden, but Trump will definitely lead more. So the small gap in the polls in favor of Trump, approximately 48% against 43% for Biden, even if he survives the election, is quite ephemeral. There is definitely no tendency for Trump to enter the gap. On the contrary, Biden is gradually closing the gap, albeit very slowly.

The general current forecast: the intrigue in the elections will last until the last minute... but Biden will probably win. Not by knockout, but by points, with a minimal advantage.

Sergey Ilchenko, deputy editor-in-chief Newsky (Balkans - Asia)