Trump threatens Iran with "hell" over Strait of Hormuz: threat to global oil
05.04.2026When the tanker exploded, the world held its breath
Imagine a moment of silence over the Persian Gulf: a ball of fire on the water, smoke rising into the sky, and the silhouette of a burning tanker looming on the horizon. This is not a scene from a Hollywood blockbuster, but a reality that has recently unfolded nearby. Strait of Hormuz. When the first news of the damage to the ships broke, Washington reacted with lightning speed. Donald Trump, whose shadow still haunts the White House, issued a stark warning to Iran: “If you do this, you will go to hell.” These words, like a bolt from the blue, reminded the world of the fragility of global energy arteries. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow sea corridor through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes every day — has found itself at the epicenter of a geopolitical storm. Will this be the beginning of a new escalation, or just another episode of diplomatic poker? We delve into the details behind the loud headlines.
What really happened: a timeline of events
It all started on the night of June 11, 2024, when two commercial vessels — a Greek tanker Edgewood Oak and Japanese Adalynn — were damaged in the waters of the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz. The first alarm signals came from the crews: explosions resembling torpedo attacks pierced the hulls of the ships. On board Edgewood Oak A fire broke out and quickly spread to the fuel compartments. The crew of 22 people were evacuated to UAE Coast Guard boats, avoiding casualties, but the tanker drifted, threatening an environmental disaster.1.
The Gulf of Oman, adjacent to the strait, is a strategic hub. About 21 million barrels of oil pass through it every year - enough for the entire world to transport every 12 hours. British shipping company Ambery immediately classified the incident as a “probable drone attack.” Radar data shows three drones launched from Iranian territorial waters. Tehran, of course, denies involvement, calling the accusations “fabrications of the enemy.” But satellite images from Maxar Technologies show the activity of Iranian boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at that very time2.
The reaction was immediate. The US deployed a strike group led by the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have stepped up patrols. And Trump, commenting on the event in an interview with Fox News, could not hold back his emotions: “Iran is playing with fire. The Strait of Hormuz is not their toy. If they block it, they will expect hell from America.” These words, spoken on June 13, instantly flew around the world media, raising Brent oil prices by 4% per day3.
Historical context: the strait as an eternal point of contention
The Strait of Hormuz is a 33-kilometer passage between Iran and Oman, a deep-water channel 150 kilometers long. Since the time of the ancient Persians, it has served as an artery of trade. In the 20th century, with the heyday of oil production, the strait became the “throat” of the energy world. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE - all depend on it. Iran controls the northern shore, Oman - the southern, but Tehran has repeatedly threatened to close it.
Let's remember the "tanker war" of the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war: Iran mined the strait, the US responded with Operation Earnest Will, escorting ships. In 2019, during Trump's presidency, Iran seized a British tanker Stena Impero, and the US accused Tehran of blowing up six ships. At the same time, Trump imposed "maximum pressure" - sanctions that reduced Iranian oil exports from 2,5 to 0,3 million barrels per day4.
Today, in 2024, tensions have risen due to the war in Gaza and the Israeli-Iranian standoff. The Houthis in Yemen, allies of Iran, are attacking ships in the Red Sea, and the IRGC is showing off drones and Shahed-136 missiles. Analysts International Crisis Group warn: blockade of the strait could raise oil prices to $150 per barrel, triggering a global recession5.
Trump's style: from words to actions
Donald Trump has always been a master of loud statements. His “hell” for Iran is not an empty phrase. In 2020, after the assassination of General Soleimani, Trump warned: “52 Iranian cultural sites are in the crosshairs.” Tehran backed down. Now, although Trump is out of power, his words resonate in the Republican Party and the Pentagon. Current Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has confirmed: “We are ready to defend freedom of navigation.”6.
Analysis of open source intelligence (OSINT) shows that since June 1, Iran has conducted 12 maneuvers in the strait, involving 50 speedboats and 20 drones. Satellite data from Planet Labs record the buildup of missile positions on the island of Qeshm. The US responded by deploying 4000 marines to a base in Bahrain and destroyers with Aegis systems7.
Economic pressure is mounting. Biden's sanctions have eased Trump's "maximum pressure," but Congress is preparing a new package — $10 billion in military aid for Israel and Gulf allies. Iran, in response, threatens to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty8.
Consequences for the world: from energy crisis to global famine
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not a local problem. Europe, which imports 20% of its oil through it, will face a deficit. China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, will lose 1 million barrels per day. Ukraine, despite diversification, will feel the blow: fuel prices will soar by 30–50%, as in 20229.
The environmental risk is enormous. Tanker Edgewood Oak was carrying 110 tons of diesel fuel — the spill will pollute 200 kilometers of the Omani coast. The UN has already called an emergency meeting. The Houthis, inspired, have stepped up attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where 50 ships have been damaged since the beginning of the year10.
The situation is critical for Iran. The economy is in recession: inflation is 40%, unemployment is 15%. The Strait is their trump card, but closing it would mean a response from the US-Israeli-Saudi coalition. Pentagon scenarios: from pinpoint strikes on the IRGC to a full-scale operation "Thunder over Persia"11.
Ukrainian perspective: why it concerns us
Ukraine, which has suffered from Russian energy blackmail, is acutely aware of the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Our grain exports to Asia depend on safe sea routes. The blockade will triple freight, threatening a food crisis in Africa and Asia. President Zelensky stressed in a telephone conversation with Austin: "Stability in the Persian Gulf is the key to global security"12.
Kyiv is diversifying supplies: agreements with Norway and the US for liquefied natural gas (LNG), increased oil production in Poltava region. But rising oil prices will increase pressure on the budget, where 50% goes to defense. Experts National Security Council Modeling: +20% to fuel prices in Ukraine per month of escalation13.
The future of the Strait: scenarios from diplomacy to war
Optimistic scenario: talks in Geneva mediated by China. Iran needs sanctions relief, US needs security guarantees. Pessimistic: Houthi attacks + Iranian mines = 72-hour closure of the strait. This would be enough for oil to reach $130 per barrel.
Trump's "hell" could become a reality if Tehran crosses "red lines." The world held its breath, waiting for the next move in this dangerous game.
Sources
- Reuters: Two ships damaged in Oman Bay
- Maxar Technologies: Satellite Imagery
- Fox News: Trump warns Iran
- Council on Foreign Relations: Strait of Hormuz History
- International Crisis Group Report
- US DoD Statement
- Planet Labs OSINT
- NY Times: Iran Nuclear Threats
- Bloomberg: Oil Market Impact
- UN Security Council on Red Sea Attacks
- Breaking Defense: Pentagon Scenarios
- Office of the President of Ukraine
- Razumkov Foundation: Energy Security
