Trump warns Iran: "The clock is ticking" - escalation around the Strait of Hormuz threatens the global economy

On Sunday night, US President Donald Trump again issued a stark warning to Tehran that instantly shook global markets and diplomatic circles. His words about the “ticking clock” came as talks over Iran’s nuclear program stalled and oil prices soared due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

New threats amid stalled negotiations

President Trump posted a brief but emphatic message on social media: Iran must act quickly, “or there will be nothing left.” He did not give a specific deadline, but hinted that time for compromise was running out. This is the third such statement by an American leader in the past two months, which has not yet been accompanied by actual military action. However, this time the tone was noticeably tougher.

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have been ongoing for several months, mediated by Pakistan. The Iranian side has submitted another counter-proposal, but the American demands remain unchanged: a significant reduction in uranium enrichment and guarantees of free passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian authorities insist on the lifting of sanctions as a primary condition.

The Strait of Hormuz: Why the World Held Its Breath

The blockade of the strategic strait, through which almost a fifth of the world's oil trade passes, has already led to a rise in Brent prices to $92 per barrel. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that in the event of further escalation, the price could reach $110-115 by the end of June 2026. Shipping companies have begun rerouting tankers around Africa, which increases delivery times by 12-15 days and raises insurance rates.

On Monday, May 18, 2026, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bahai told reporters: “Don’t worry, we know how to respond well.” The words came amid reports of Iranian missile systems moving around the Persian Gulf coast. According to satellite imagery published by the Oryx project, the number of launchers in Hormozgan province has increased by 40% in the past week.

Reaction of Israel and regional players

The Israeli Air Force conducted unscheduled exercises to repel a massive rocket attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held an urgent meeting with the IDF command. According to sources in Tel Aviv, Israel is ready for a "limited but decisive" response in the event of a new attack on American bases in the region.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, previously skeptical of Trump's tough rhetoric, have now expressed concern. Riyadh has already increased oil production by 300 barrels per day to cushion the price shock. At the same time, the UAE has stepped up talks with China on alternative energy supply routes.

Economic consequences for Ukraine and Europe

The rise in oil prices directly affects the Ukrainian market. According to the Ministry of Economy, each dollar increase in Brent price adds approximately 0,8% to inflation in Ukraine. In May 2026, the cost of A-95 gasoline already exceeded 52 hryvnias per liter in most regions. European countries, which have so far relied on American security guarantees in the Persian Gulf, have begun to review their energy strategies for 2027–2030.

Analysts at the International Energy Agency believe that the ongoing crisis around the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the deepest energy shock since 2022. Countries in Southern Europe and the Balkans remain particularly vulnerable.

What's next: scenarios

Diplomats from Pakistan, who are acting as mediators, report the possibility of a new meeting at the level of deputy ministers as early as next week. At the same time, internal discussions between the "hawks" and "doves" continue in Tehran. Part of the Iranian leadership insists on demonstrative toughness, the other - on finding a compromise to avoid a repeat of the 2025 strikes.

Trump, for his part, continues to balance between a show of force and the desire to reach an agreement that can be presented as a victory before the 2028 elections. Experts do not rule out that in the coming days the US may impose additional sanctions against Iranian oil tankers and companies that help circumvent the restrictions.

The situation remains dynamic. Every new post on social media by the American president or a statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry can change the tone of the market within a few hours. The world is closely watching to see whether the ticking clock will turn into real action or become another round of diplomatic play.

Sources

1. The New York Times
2. Reuters
3. Oryx
4. Goldman Sachs Commodities Research
5. International Energy Agency