Trump lifts Iran blockade: nuclear inspections forever

The decision, which could change the balance of power in the Persian Gulf, came as a surprise even to the US president's inner circle.

On Tuesday evening, Donald Trump issued a statement that instantly captured the attention of world capitals: the United States is ending its naval blockade of Iran. The reason is Tehran's full agreement to unlimited, top-level nuclear inspections. This step was a logical continuation of the process that began with the remote signing of the memorandum on June 17.

From blockade to open strait

The Strait of Hormuz, through which almost a fifth of the world's oil trade passes, has remained closed to Iranian tankers since late May. Now, according to Trump, the path is clear. "I have agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz OPEN by lifting the naval blockade," the president wrote on Truth Social. At the same time, he stressed that US Navy ships remain on combat duty and are ready to regain control within hours if Tehran backs down.

The decision to lift the blockade was accompanied by the issuance of a 60-day general license, which allows the resumption of sales of Iranian oil to world markets. This immediately affected futures: the price of a barrel of Brent fell by $3,8 in the first four hours after the announcement.

Nuclear inspections: what exactly did Iran agree to?

According to Trump, Iran has "fully and unconditionally agreed to the highest level of nuclear inspections for a long time to come (forever!!!)." This means that the IAEA will have access to all facilities, including military sites that were previously closed to international observers. Inspectors will have the right to conduct surprise inspections without warning and install permanent surveillance cameras.

Diplomatic sources in Vienna confirm that the new protocol goes far beyond the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In particular, Iran agreed to quarterly reports on its uranium-235 reserves and a complete cessation of research at enrichment levels above 3,67% for the next 25 years.

Reaction of Tehran and regional players

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called the decision “a historic compromise that protects the country’s sovereignty,” in a speech. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held phone calls with his counterparts from China, Russia, and Turkey, assuring them that Tehran was ready for full transparency.

Israel, which has previously insisted on a hard line, has expressed muted concerns. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “any agreement needs reliable verification mechanisms.” Saudi Arabia and the UAE, by contrast, have welcomed the opening of the strait, saying it reduces risks to their oil exports.

Economic implications for global markets

The resumption of Iranian oil supplies could add up to 1,2 million barrels per day to the market as early as the third quarter of 2026. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the average Brent price could fall to $68 per barrel in 2026. This would have a positive impact on European and Asian economies suffering from high energy costs.

Meanwhile, American oil companies in Texas and North Dakota are expressing concern about a possible drop in prices. The American Association of Independent Petroleum Producers has already asked Congress to impose protective duties on Iranian crude.

Military dimension: ships remain in place

Despite the lifting of the blockade, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group continues to patrol the Arabian Sea. The commander of US Central Command, General Michael Kurilla, emphasized that “the presence of deterrence remains a key element of the policy.” A similar position was taken by the British and French navies, which also maintain ships in the region.

Domestic political context in the USA

Trump has been vocal in his criticism of the “fake news” that he says is trying to undermine the deal. In his tweet, he said that “if they hadn’t agreed to this, there would have been no further negotiations.” Republicans in Congress generally support the decision, while Democrats are demanding a detailed report on the mechanisms for monitoring Iran’s nuclear program.

What's next: 60-day period

The memorandum of June 17 stipulates that the parties must agree on the final text of the agreement within the next 60 days. The main points include: the lifting of most sanctions, the creation of a joint monitoring commission, as well as a mechanism for the rapid restoration of the blockade in case of violation. The final agreement is expected to be signed in Washington in late August.

Middle East experts believe that the success of the deal will largely depend on the position of Israel and the Gulf Arab monarchies. If they manage to obtain additional security guarantees, the chances of a lasting ceasefire increase significantly.