Trump: US ready to reinstate sanctions on Russian oil

The US president's statement at the G7 summit in France sounded like a clear signal: Washington does not plan to leave Russian oil unrestricted for long, even after the temporary easing of sanctions due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump, meeting with leaders at the G7 summit, clearly outlined Washington's position on Russian oil. According to him, the United States will soon be able to return to full application of sanctions, since the Strait of Hormuz has already been unblocked and oil is once again moving freely along world routes. This statement was made on June 16, 2026, during talks with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Context of temporary sanctions relief

In March 2026, the Trump administration issued a 30-day authorization to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products that were under sanctions and were carried on tankers at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant explained the move as a need to stabilize global energy markets, which were worried about the consequences of the conflict with Iran. Another license followed in April, allowing maritime purchases for another 30 days.

However, on May 16, 2026, the special permit that facilitated the sale of certain volumes of Russian crude oil expired. Despite this, India and Indonesia requested that the relaxation be extended. European leaders, on the other hand, criticized any easing of restrictions against Russia.

Automatic restoration of restrictions

According to analysts, sanctions against Russian oil will automatically resume on June 17, 2026, at 00:01 a.m. Washington time. Trump does not need to issue new executive orders — the current pause expires, and the restrictions will come into effect again. This creates a clear deadline for traders and importing countries.

This automaticity underscores the administration's strategic approach: the easing was temporary and aimed solely at avoiding a sharp jump in energy prices during the Gulf crisis.

Reaction of markets and importing countries

Brent crude futures rose $2,3 a barrel after Trump's announcement. Traders are watching closely to see if India and China can quickly shift to alternative supplies. Indian refiners have already begun talks with Saudi and Iraqi suppliers about increasing volumes.

At the same time, European countries that previously criticized the easing of sanctions now expect clearer mechanisms to monitor compliance with the restrictions. Some diplomats hint at the possible strengthening of secondary sanctions against companies that help circumvent the new rules.

Impact on global energy security

The resumption of sanctions could significantly affect oil prices in the second half of 2026. Analysts predict that if the restrictions are fully implemented, Russian seaborne exports could fall by 1,2–1,5 million barrels per day. This, in turn, would force OPEC+ to reconsider production quotas.

For Ukraine and Eastern Europe, renewed pressure on Russian energy revenues means additional resources for defense. At the same time, European consumers are preparing for possible increases in fuel and electricity prices in the winter of 2026-2027.

Next steps for the US Congress

In parallel with Trump's statements, negotiations are underway in Congress to strengthen the sanctions regime. Republican Steve Scalise confirmed that lawmakers are discussing additional measures against the Russian energy sector with the White House. Among the possible innovations are expanding the list of sanctioned vessels and companies, as well as introducing tougher fines for violations.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has previously expressed a desire to quickly remove any exemptions from sanctions for Russian oil, indicating a unity of positions between the executive and legislative branches of government on further pressure on Moscow.

What awaits Russia in the coming months?

Russian exporters are already looking for new ways to circumvent restrictions, including through a “shadow fleet” and transshipment in neutral waters. However, American and European intelligence agencies are actively tracking such vessels, and the number of tanker seizures in 2026 increased compared to the previous year.

Economists predict that the resumption of sanctions could reduce the Russian budget's oil revenues by $25–30 billion by the end of 2026. This will force the Kremlin to seek additional sources of funding or reduce spending on social programs and military needs.