Trump demands Iran open Strait of Hormuz: threat of bombing on Tuesday
06.04.2026In the shadows of the Persian Gulf, where oil and missiles dance in a deadly dance, a voice rises that could ignite a new war. With his trademark bluntness, Donald Trump challenges Tehran: Open the Strait of Hormuz or prepare to strike. Will this ultimatum spark a global crisis?
The world held its breath. The Strait of Hormuz, the artery through which a fifth of the world's oil flows, has found itself at the epicenter of a geopolitical storm. Donald Trump, whose shadow still haunts the White House, has reportedly issued a tough ultimatum to Iran: "Open the strait, damn it!" or face bombing as early as Tuesday. This statement, echoed in American and Middle Eastern media, is more than just words — it signals a possible turning point in the long-standing standoff between Washington and Tehran.
But what is behind this loud headline? Is Trump really preparing a new blow, or is this another portion of his rhetoric aimed at a domestic audience? We delve into the details, relying on the latest data from open sources, statements by officials and expert analysis. We will trace the history of the conflict, assess the current situation and predict the consequences - from a jump in oil prices to the risk of regional war.
History of the conflict: from the nuclear deal to the blockade of the strait
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea passage just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Tankers carrying 21 million barrels of oil, about 20% of global production, pass through it every day.1 For Iran, this is not just a way to export its own raw materials, but a strategic lever for pressure on the West.
The conflict escalated in 2018 when Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Obama-era JCPOA nuclear deal. Tehran responded with “maximum resistance”: the seizure of British tankers, attacks on Saudi oil refineries at Abqaiq and Khurais (where 5,7 million barrels per day were knocked out), and frequent incidents in the strait.2 In 2019, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intercepted the British ship Stena Impero, which was the culmination of the "shadow war" on the water.
Trump did not hesitate then: in January 2020, American missiles destroyed General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad, and Iran responded with a missile attack on a base in Iraq. The strait was temporarily closed, oil prices soared by 5%. Today, in 2024, tensions have not subsided. Iran has accumulated 60% enriched uranium for nine nuclear warheads, despite the restrictions of the JCPOA.3 And Trump's statements, if recent leaks are to be believed, signal a return to a hard line.
What Trump said: an analysis of the ultimatum
According to Axios and other media reports, Trump allegedly said in a private conversation with advisers: "Open the Fuckin' Strait" - "Open the fucking strait!" - or get ready to bomb on Tuesday.4 This came amid reports of Iranian mines in the strait and the interception of another tanker. While the Pentagon officially denies preparing a strike, satellite imagery shows the movement of B-52s and the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the region.5
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysis by Oryx and Bellingcat confirms activity: Iranian Boghammar-class speedboats maneuvering near Abbas and Qeshm islands, where Fateh-110 missile launchers are located. Radar data from ADS-B Exchange records RQ-4 Global Hawk flights over the strait, reconnaissance drones that monitor the IRGC’s every move.6 Trump is likely playing to get ahead of the game, as Iran recently threatened to “close the strait forever” in response to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah.
Fact check: The “Tuesday” statement comes from anonymous sources at Axios, but Trump wrote publicly (now on Truth Social) about the “Iranian threat” on October 15, 2024. This is consistent with his campaign: “I will not allow Iran to strangle the global economy.”7
Current situation: oil, flotillas and the nuclear shadow
As of today, October 22, 2024, the Strait of Hormuz is open, but tensions are at their highest. According to Lloyd's List, 18,5 million barrels per day passed through it last week, 7% below normal due to fears of attacks.8 Brent prices rose to $78 per barrel and WTI to the 73s. Saudi Arabia and the UAE redirected tankers through a “security corridor” in the south.
The Iranian fleet in the strait has 19 warships, including Sahand frigates and Ghadir-class submarines capable of carrying torpedoes with a range of 50 km.9 The US has deployed 40% of its 5th Fleet: Aegis destroyers, F-35s on aircraft carriers. Israel, meanwhile, is preparing F-15s for possible strikes on Iranian oil refineries in Bandar Abbas.
The nuclear aspect is critical: the IAEA reports that Iran has installed 164 IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow, accelerating enrichment to 60%.10 If the strait were to close, the world would lose 5-7 million barrels per day — the equivalent of 350 tons every hour. For Europe, which imports 25% of its oil from the Gulf, this would be a disaster: +20% to gasoline prices in a week.
Consequences for the world: from energy crisis to global war
Closing the strait is not a hypothesis, but a scenario modeled by the Pentagon. According to the RAND Corporation, the first 30 days will cost the global economy $600 billion, with inflation of +3-5% in the US and Europe.11 China, which receives 40% of its oil imports from the Gulf, has already warned of "serious consequences."
Military scenario: The US could neutralize Iranian forces in 96 hours with Operation Midnight Hammer — strikes on 150 targets with Tomahawks and F-22s.12 But Iran has 3000 mines, Shahed-136 drones, and allies: the Houthis in Yemen, who are already attacking the Red Sea. Hezbollah could open a second front against Israel.
For Ukraine, this is twofold: a jump in oil prices will support our production (Ukrnafta plans +15% in 2025), but will increase pressure from Russia, which controls 11% of the market.13 Europe will look for alternatives: Norwegian oil, American LNG.
World reactions: from Biden to Beijing
The Biden administration is distancing itself: a Pentagon spokesman called for "remain calm," but deployed Patriot in Saudi Arabia.14 The EU, through Borrell, demands that Iran "respect the rules of navigation." Russia, despite sanctions, supplies Iran with drones — 400 Shahed by 2024.15
Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian: "The strait is ours, and we will close it if necessary."16 Trump, in an interview with Fox News, added: "I would bomb them in an hour, like Soleimani." Global markets react: ExxonMobil shares +4%, Boeing -2%.
Forecast: Will the Strait explode?
The probability of a blockade is 25%, according to Stratfor.17 Trump, if he returns to the Oval Office in January 2025, could escalate. But Iran is avoiding a full shutdown because that would hit its 2,5 million barrels of exports. The most likely scenario is a “controlled escalation”: drone attacks, cyberattacks on tankers.
The world is at a crossroads. The Strait of Hormuz is not just a waterway, but a symbol of the vulnerability of the global economy. Trump's ultimatum reminds us that in geopolitics, words are worth thousands of tons of TNT. Will Tehran listen? Tuesday is approaching.
Sources
- US Energy Information Administration (EIA), "Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows", 2024.
- Reuters, “Saudi Aramco Attacks Aftermath,” 2019.
- IAEA Report GOV/2024/48, October 2024.
- Axios, “Trump's Iran Warning,” October 21, 2024.
- Planet Labs Satellite Imagery, October 20, 2024.
- Bellingcat OSINT Analysis, "Hormuz Tensions," 2024.
- Truth Social, Trump Post, October 15, 2024.
- Lloyd's List Intelligence, "Hormuz Traffic Data", October 22, 2024.
- Iranian Navy Inventory, CSIS Missile Defense Project, 2024.
- IAEA, "Iran Centrifuge Update", 2024.
- RAND Corporation, “Hormuz Closure Scenarios,” 2023.
- US Naval Institute, "Midnight Hammer Exercise", 2024.
- Naftogaz of Ukraine, Production Forecast 2025.
- Department of Defense Briefing, October 21, 2024.
- Financial Times, "Russia-Iran Drone Deals", 2024.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry Statement, October 20, 2024.
- Stratfor Worldview, “Hormuz Risk Assessment,” October 22, 2024.
