Slovenia's elections will be a test of political sentiment in Europe
22.03.2026Will the scandal affect the populist's return to power?
Slovenia's opposition leader and former nationalist prime minister Janez Janša prepares for the final televised debates in Ljubljana on Friday ahead of parliamentary elections. Photo: Jure Makovec/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
In Slovenia, a country of about two million people and strategically important to Europe, a sharp political conflict is unfolding on the eve of parliamentary elections on March 26, 2026. Behind the scenes of the campaign are accusations of dirty methods, the involvement of Israeli private intelligence and foreign interference. Opposition leader Janez Janša, a former prime minister and supporter of Donald Trump, is trying to return to power. Melania Trump's homeland could become a new hotbed of right-wing populism in the EU. The finale of the campaign has turned into an arena of disinformation and external influence.
Janez Janša: the path from communism to nationalism
Janez Janša, a 67-year-old veteran of Slovenian politics, is a controversial figure. He was a communist in his youth as part of Yugoslavia, but became a nationalist after the federation's collapse in the early 1990s. He has served as prime minister three times (2004–2008, 2012–2013, 2020–2022). During his last term, he cut funding for media outlets he considered unfriendly, called migrants an existential threat and denied Joe Biden's victory in 2020, calling his opponents "nihilists of truth."1
His Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is campaigning with nostalgic posters of a boy playing the accordion under the slogan “So that your grandson can still sing Slovenian songs.” It appeals to fears of cultural change due to globalization and migration. According to polls, the SDS could get 25-28% of the vote, but the Black Cube scandal has weakened the party’s position. After a 2022 defeat that slowed the right-wing wave in Europe, Janša is seeking revenge. His success could embolden right-wing forces from France to Poland.2
According to the Repovž election center as of March 25, the difference between the SDS and the ruling Freedom Movement (GS) of Robert Golob is only 1–2%. In the 90-seat parliament, coalitions with smaller parties will be crucial.3
Black Cube Scandal: An Operation Ordered by the Opposition
The campaign culminated in secret videos released days before the vote, showing a former minister, lawyers and government aides bragging about their connections and assistance to a foreign businessman. Initially, this gave Janša arguments against the “corrupt” Golob, but an investigation by Slovenian journalists and the human rights group Institute of March 8 changed the situation.
The video turned out to be the result of an operation by a private Israeli intelligence firm, Black Cube, allegedly hired by SDS. The company, founded by former Mossad agents, is notorious for helping Harvey Weinstein blackmail victims, and for operations in Romania (where three employees received suspended sentences for intimidating an anti-corruption prosecutor) and Hungary against critics of Viktor Orbán.4
Marko Milosavljevic, a journalism professor at the University of Ljubljana and a critic of Janša, warns: “The tension is enormous. New videos or fakes could appear at any time and ignite chaos.” The evidence includes recordings of meetings between SDS representatives and Giora Eiland, the former head of Israel’s National Security Council and a partner in Black Cube. Janša initially denied knowing the firm, but admitted to meeting with Eiland — supposedly about the Middle East, not the elections.5
Golob called it a “hybrid threat” to the EU and appealed to European leaders for support. Emmanuel Macron said: “Golob is a victim of third-country interference, disinformation and paraintelligence activities.” Reuters confirms: Black Cube has been operating in Eastern Europe since 2017, often in favor of right-wing forces.6
Robert Golob: Businessman Against Nationalists
Prime Minister Robert Golob, a 59-year-old former energy businessman, took over the GS in 2022, ending Janša's rule. His center-left government is pro-European, focused on green energy and social reforms. Critics accuse him of opacity and corruption, accusations that the Black Cube video exploited.
Golob criticizes Israel: Slovenia recognized Palestine in 2024 and banned products from settlements. Janša, on the other hand, supports Israel: during his premiership, he ordered Israeli flags to be hung on government buildings. This difference reflects the split: liberals see the EU as a savior, nationalists - a threat to traditions.7
Mediana polls show GS at 24%, with over a dozen small parties (from the Greens to the left), making the coalition unpredictable. Local media outlets like Delo report record polarization, with roots dating back to World War II, when Chetniks and Partisans fought for power.8
Slovenia as an indicator for Europe
Slovenia is the most stable post-Yugoslav country: GDP per capita is $32, unemployment is low, and it has been a member of the EU and NATO since 2004. Melania Trump's (née Knavs) homeland is a test case for Europe. With elections three weeks away in Hungary, where Orban (an ally of Janša) could lose power, Ljubljana is in the spotlight.
Janša's victory could turn Slovenia into a "problematic" EU member, similar to Hungary or Serbia: blocking decisions, anti-migrant rhetoric. Bellingcat analysis shows Black Cube-linked disinformation networks reaching Moscow and Tehran - it's a hybrid war in the elections.9
European diplomats are closely watching, according to the Financial Times: a populist defeat in Slovenia would strengthen centrists ahead of elections in Austria and the Netherlands. Local analysts at RTV Slovenija predict a possible "Hungarian scenario" with control over the media.10
Historical context: the legacy of Yugoslavia
Slovenia gained independence from Yugoslavia in 1991 in the “Ten-Day War” and became a model of success. However, the traumas remain: the right idealizes the pre-Yugoslav past, the left - the partisan struggle. Today, the split is between globalists and supporters of national sovereignty. Janša uses this, positioning himself as a defender of “Slovenianness.”
According to Eurobarometer, 55% of Slovenians support the EU, but 30% are concerned about migration. The scandal has increased distrust - turnout could reach 70%, a record since 2014.11
Scenarios and implications for the EU
If SDS wins the most votes, Janša will form a coalition with the right, risking isolation in the EU. Golob can hold power with the left. Stratfor analysts note: the result will affect the EU Migration Pact and support for Ukraine (Slovenia has allocated 50 million euros from 2022).12
On the eve of the elections, social media is full of fakes, the Central Election Commission has recorded over 200 incidents. Janša blames the "deep state", Golob - "Russian agents". Europe awaits the results.
Sources
- The New York Times: Election in Slovenia Will Test Europe's Political Mood
- Reuters: Slovenia election too close to call
- Repovž: Zadnje ankete before the elections
- The Guardian: Black Cube's role in Slovenian polls
- Haaretz: Janša denies Black Cube ties
- Politico: Macron backs Golob on interference
- Delo: Golob's Israel policy shift
- Mediana: Volilna survey marec 2026
- Bellingcat: Disinfo networks in Slovenia
- Financial Times: Slovenia as EU bellwether
- Eurobarometer: Slovenia report
- Stratfor: Scenarios post-election
