How Israel averted destruction: the anatomy of the most dangerous crisis of the 21st century
01.07.2025At night, when most Israelis were only guessing at the scale of the threat, the country stood on the brink of extinction. Not figuratively, but literally: in Tehran, in Palestine Square, the hours were counted down to “the end of Israel,” while military analysts in Jerusalem warned: a few more weeks and Iranian nuclear weapons would become a reality. The countdown was not in months, but in days. This was not an ordinary Middle Eastern escalation, but a moment when the very existence of the state was at stake. How did Israel get to this point, what decisions were made behind closed doors, and why is this story not about triumph, but about the chronicle of a survivor on the edge of the abyss?
Doomsday Clock: Why Iran believed in its own victory
In recent months, the Iranian regime has openly demonstrated its confidence in the imminent destruction of Israel. The famous “Israel Destruction Clock” in the center of Tehran was not just a propaganda stunt, but a reflection of a real strategic plan. After the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which exposed the vulnerability of Israeli defenses, Tehran decided: the moment has come. Destabilization, chaos, division in society - all this pushed the ayatollah to believe that the time for the “final blow” had come The Times of Israel.
Israeli military and intelligence officials, assessing the situation, concluded that Iran’s nuclear weapons program was in its final stages, and Iran’s missile arsenal already posed an existential threat. Military advisors warned the political leadership that waiting until the end of 2025 was too late. “Now or never,” was the dilemma formulated at the highest level. The Times of Israel.
After October 7: Iran's new strategy and the evolution of the threat
The failure of coordination between Hamas and Tehran during the attack on southern Israel did not prevent Iran from seeing an opportunity in the event. The massacre was not only a moral victory for the ayatollahs, but also confirmation of the weakness of the Israeli security system. As a result, Iran sharply accelerated its nuclear program, increased the production of ballistic missiles, strengthened its air defenses, and carried out its first direct missile strike on Israel in April 2024, followed by another massive attack in the fall. The Times of Israel.
At the same time, Israel killed a key proxy leader, Hezbollah's Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, and significantly weakened the group in Lebanon. Hamas, although holding hostages, was reduced to a shadow of its former strength. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria allowed Israel to quickly take control of the country's skies, preventing the transfer of strategic assets to new forces. The Times of Israel.
Nuclear Breakthrough: How Close Was Iran?
Iranian scientists, in violation of international treaties and even a religious fatwa, have accelerated the development of nuclear weapons. By the summer of 2025, the country had more than 275 kg of uranium enriched to 60% — a technical step towards the 90% warhead level and potentially enough to create several warheads. BBC, BBC, BBC. The IAEA estimates that Iran could complete a weapons project within months. American intelligence estimates that it would take six months to a year and a half to create a full-fledged nuclear weapon, but the Israeli military has insisted that a breakthrough could come sooner. BBC, BBC.
In parallel, Iran launched a large-scale production of missiles: by the beginning of the summer of 2025, the arsenal reached 2 units, many of which are capable of carrying a ton of explosives over a distance of more than 500 km - this is enough to cover the entire territory of Israel, and in the future - Europe. Israel Hayom.
How the Israeli response was planned: the secrets of Operation Rising Lion
Israel's response was prepared in the strictest secrecy. Back in May 2023, the army conducted large-scale exercises simulating a multi-front war in response to an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. But it was not until October 2024 that preparations entered the phase of real planning: the goal was not only to destroy nuclear facilities, but also to strike missile arsenals, air defenses, command centers, and key scientists. The Times of Israel.
In April 2025, the ideal time for the attack was determined to be June. By this time, Israeli intelligence had maximum access to Iranian facilities, and Iran's air defenses had not yet recovered from previous strikes. Only a narrow circle of political and military leaders participated in the operation, and most even high-ranking officers learned about it already at the beginning of the fighting The Times of Israel.
Impact mechanics: how Israel "squeezed" 1800 km per second
Operation Rising Lion was a model of military engineering and tactical surprise. To achieve the effect of complete surprise, disinformation maneuvers, false movements, and minimizing the number of people privy to the details were used. In parallel, the US transferred B-2 bombers to Guam, and others - secretly to strike Fordow The Times of Israel.
The first strikes targeted command centers, air defenses, missile depots, launchers, scientists, and key military personnel. A particular target was Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Iran's top missile engineer, who was killed along with five top IRGC officers in a bunker. The Times of Israel.
The first hours of the war: why Iran did not respond immediately
In the first 18 hours after the Israeli strike, Iran failed to fire a single missile. The command system was paralyzed, key figures were destroyed, and the air defenses were partially disabled. Only after 21:00 did Iran launch two missile attacks of 50 shells each, but only 14% of them reached their targets. The Times of Israel.
Thanks to Israeli and American air defenses, most of the rockets were intercepted. However, even these strikes resulted in the deaths of 28 people (almost all civilians), over 3000 wounded, and destruction in Beersheba, Haifa, Rehovot, and Bnei Brak. The Times of Israel.
Has the Iranian nuclear program been destroyed?
Despite the loud statements of politicians, US intelligence and independent experts believe that the strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan did not completely destroy the Iranian nuclear program, but only postponed it for several months. BBC, BBC, BBCThe bulk of the underground infrastructure remained intact, and Tehran managed to move some of the enriched uranium before the bombing began. BBC.
The Iranian authorities have already announced their intention to resume the program, and experts do not rule out that some of the technologies and materials could have been hidden in other regions of the country or even exported abroad. BBC.
Israel's goal: not just bombs, but also political effect
The operation was aimed not only at destroying military capabilities, but also at undermining the legitimacy of the Ayatollah's regime. According to sources Reuters, Israel sought to force Iran to make concessions: to curtail its nuclear program, abandon support for proxy groups, and weaken Khamenei's power. Not only military facilities were hit, but also state institutions, the police, and the headquarters of state television.
Israel used the entire arsenal of modern warfare: from F-35s to cyberattacks and Mossad special operations. Over 12 precision strikes were carried out in 4 days, key scientists were killed, factories, tunnels, warehouses, command centers were destroyed. For the first time in 000 years, Tehran was hit on its own territory Reuters.
Why did the war last only 12 days?
Israel's military and political leadership had set achievable goals in advance: to prevent a nuclear breakthrough by Iran and to improve the strategic balance. Continuing the war threatened losses: it was estimated that up to 400 Israelis could have been killed and several aircraft could have been shot down if the fighting had dragged on. Prime Minister Netanyahu, who the military considers the key architect of the US involvement in the operation, agreed: the war must be ended before Iran could regain its strength. The Times of Israel.
A ceasefire was reached thanks to Donald Trump's public mediation. However, as both Israel and the West acknowledge, this is only a temporary solution. Iran is not giving up, but is only preparing for a new push. Reuters.
Echoes of War: Has the Nuclear Threat Been Stopped?
IAEA officially recognizes Iran as a violator of nuclear non-proliferation obligations - for the first time in 20 years BBC. Negotiations on a new nuclear deal have stalled, with Tehran threatening a “harsh response” to any new sanctions or attacks. The US and Israel have agreed to further military aid (about $4 billion) and to develop a multi-year plan to deter Iran Iran International.
The international community recognizes that even after a devastating blow, Iran retains the potential to revive the program, and the country's geography allows it to hide new facilities. It is possible that new scientists could join the development, and technologies could be imported from North Korea or Pakistan. BBC.
New Balance: Has a Middle East War Become Inevitable?
After the Israeli attack, Iran activated proxy groups in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. The region found itself on the brink of a major war: oil prices rose 10%, world markets collapsed, and gold prices rose. YouTubeThe US and Europe have called on the parties to exercise restraint, but the risk of a full-scale conflict remains extremely high. YouTube.
Israel declared full combat readiness: air defense, Iron Dome, cyber-spies. The US sent additional forces to the Persian Gulf. Iran responded with new threats, and new posters appeared in the squares of Tehran: "We are all soldiers of Iran." However, this time they only have Iranian flags on them, not dreams of Jerusalem. The Times of Israel.
Conclusion: victory or postponement of disaster?
Israel has avoided destruction, but has not won completely. As former Prime Minister Bennett notes, the Ayatollah regime will not accept defeat - it will either accelerate the nuclear program or patiently resume it, waiting for a new chance. The military warns: if necessary, Israel is ready to repeat the strike within a few days The Times of Israel.
This story is not about heroism, but about the fragility of security in a world where one mistake or delay can cost the existence of an entire nation. And while the "Israel Destruction Clock" is being repaired in the squares of Tehran, Jerusalem is preparing for the next round - because the war for survival here never ends.
Sources: The Times of Israel, BBC, BBC, BBC, Reuters, Israel Hayom, Iran International, YouTube
