India, Russia, Ukraine: on greed and hypocrisy

Exclusive. As is known, Narendra Modi's visit to Russia took place from July 8 to 9, 2024. This was the first visit of the Prime Minister of India to Russia since 2019. During the visit, the program of strategic cooperation until 2030 was signed.

The visit coincided poignantly with Russia's massive attack on Ukraine: 41 dead, more than 200 wounded, among the objects that were hit by a rocket attack - Kiev's "Okhmatdet", and such coincidences cannot be believed. It is more likely that Putin tried to tie Mody to himself more strongly, sprinkling him with the blood of Ukrainian children.

But Moda was not impressed by Putin's game: morals in India are simple, there sometimes they can sacrifice a schoolboy to improve the commercial performance of a private school, and killing an infidel for not respecting the sacred cow is commonplace. A rocket attack on a children's hospital in India will not surprise anyone, and Mody went to Moscow with a clear goal: to sign an agreement beneficial to India.

It was signed.

So Mody called the attack on Okhmatdet a "painful and terrifying event", but, as always, refrained from accusing Russia. On the other hand, India increased its oil imports from Russia, taking advantage of the off-market low prices offered by Moscow. For a long time, Russia became the largest supplier of oil to the Indian market. In addition, India is worried about the rapprochement of Russia and China, its old rival in the region, which forces Modi to act according to the principle "I am better than you."

In its turn, Moscow presents its ties with India as a sign of its influence in the notorious "Global South", trying to create an image of itself as a liberal in opposition to the hegemony of the United States and the West as a whole.

In other words, the interests of Moda and Putin do not coincide, but complement each other, forming a common vector.

However, after a successful trip to Moscow, Mody was needed wash off from the close relationship with Putin in the eyes of the West. For such a washing of New Delhi, by the way, at the request of Moscow, even under the USSR, a "policy of non-alignment" was invented.

Mody endured a pause, and then, in order to avoid embarrassing moments during his visit to Ukraine as much as possible, he first visited Poland. According to Moda, his double trip, to Warsaw, and from there to Kyiv, was supposed to "help settle the conflict between Kyiv and Moscow." Of course, she did not help, and Mody did not go for it. His Polish-Ukrainian trip had an exclusively presentational nature and was aimed at a Western audience.

Like his predecessors (cursed by the propaganda of the ruling party), Mody balances between Russia and the West, trying to get maximum benefits from both sides, and therefore should not look like an ally of either side in the eyes of the other, and the new era requires greater flexibility and maneuverability in these questions...

Such balancing sometimes forces the Mods to openly play the fool, but this has long become part of the Indian style in foreign policy. And now, avoiding direct condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mody ritually called on the parties to resolve their differences through dialogue. "As friends and partners, we hope for an early return to the region of peace and stability," Moda's statement, published before leaving for Poland, said.

When the harsh Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reminded Mody of Kyiv's right to protect its borders, his Indian colleague, completely in the spirit of Bollywood, sang a song calling for "dialogue and diplomacy" between Ukraine and Russia, which set as its goal the destruction of the Ukrainian people and state. Perhaps Mody even performed an incendiary Indian dance at the same time, but the video, for obvious reasons, did not make it to the Internet.

This pop and political number was, of course, not intended for Tusk, and even more so not for Zelensky. Mody corrected his image in the eyes of the current administration of the White House, and the new president of the United States, who was not yet elected at that time.

India is the fifth largest economy in the world and an important sales market, and the US views it as a potential partner to counter China, which has strained relations with New Delhi. This is exactly what Mody is building his game on. Although it is far from a fact that he, or his successor, will not abandon the West at the last moment, coming to a compromise with Beijing. Which, in turn, will surrender to the West at the next convenient opportunity.

After training in Warsaw, Mody arrived in Kyiv. His visit came on August 23, the Day of the State Flag of Ukraine, which gave Moda additional opportunities for thoughtful PR gestures designed for viewers in Washington.

Ukraine itself, a country with bilateral trade that is imperceptible to India (the share of India's imports is 0,2%), is of no interest to New Delhi (with the exception of Lakshma Mittal's property, which, however, the current Indian government does not care about) - unlike Russia, the volume of bilateral trade with which has reached a historical maximum...

As a result, the parties politely bowed, exchanged meaningless statements about the struggle for all that is good and against all that is bad, and even signed agreements on cooperation in the medical, agricultural, humanitarian and cultural spheres, which have no real meaning.

Moda has already signed all the really significant contracts in Moscow.

Is it possible to call this an autonomous policy between the West and the Anti-West, since it is still difficult to call the anti-Western camp Russia-China-Iran-DPRK the traditional East?

Hardly.

Rather, it is a situational policy without a clear development strategy, in search of immediate benefits.

India's trade with Russia

In mid-December, Rosneft concluded agreement about the supply of 500 barrels of oil per day to the Indian private Reliance refinery, as part of the largest energy deal in history between the two countries. The 000-year deal makes up 10% of world supplies and is worth approximately 0,5 billion dollars per hour at today's prices. It will further strengthen energy relations between India and Russia, which is under Western sanctions because of the war in Ukraine.

Russian oil accounts for more than a third of India's energy imports. India became the largest importer of Russian oil after the EU, which was previously its largest buyer, imposed sanctions on the import of Russian oil. India has not imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation, and Indian oil refiners, taking advantage of Russia's difficult situation, lower prices by at least 5-10 dollars per barrel.

The new deal accounts for approximately half of Rosneft's seaborne oil exports from Russian ports. But there is a nuance (as in the joke about Vasily Ivanovich).

India pays for oil in non-convertible rupees.

Of course, in India itself, for rupees, Russia can buy a lot of interesting things. For example, India took second place in terms of the volume of deliveries of critical sanctioned goods and technologies to Russia. It supplies (some) microchips, microcircuits and machines. However, the imbalance remains. And for rupees, you can't buy anything else, except in India. In addition, due to another fall of the ruble, imports, together with the rupee, have traveled a lot...

Bilateral trade between India and Russia from March 2023 to March 2024 peaked at $65,70 billion, mainly due to the purchase of discounted Russian oil. At the same time, India's exports to Russia amounted to $4,26 billion. However, everything is not so simple with this number. It is possible that it is only the tip of the iceberg, and a significant part of the trade in high-tech sanctioned goods is hidden in the shadows. Unlike oil at demipng prices, Russian weapons no longer attract Indian buyers. India now buys more weapons from Western suppliers, which is a significant change in policy for a country that has traditionally depended on the supply of weapons from the Russian Federation.

Also postponed plans of India and Russia regarding the joint development and production of helicopters and modern fighters. A separate proposal to lease a nuclear submarine from Russia to train the Indian crew is also unlikely to be implemented, given not the most successful experience of renting a shock diesel submarine of the "Shark" type, which received the name "Chakra" in the Indian Navy. India is successfully building warships on its own, using Western technologies, and the quality of Russian weapons, even compared to the Soviet ones, has fallen sharply.

As a result, if in 2009-2013, 76% of arms imports came to India from Russia, then in 2019-2023, only 36% came. This is still the first place, with France with 34% in second place, but much less than before.

In other words, India is trying to diversify the supply of military equipment, but such a turnaround takes time. However, the process is ongoing, Russia, embroiled in a war with Ukraine, is spending most of its military production itself, which is why the contracts remained unfulfilled. In particular, back in 2018, India signed a contract for the supply of five Russian S-400 systems over a period of five years, but so far has received only three...

To be continued

Sergey Ilchenko, deputy editor-in-chief